29 Sept 2025
This analysis projects the dollar exchange rate at a base of 105,000 Toman under stable conditions and increasing liquidity, with an upper bound of 126,000 Toman for scenarios involving heightened, yet contained, geopolitical risks. It also outlines strategic buying opportunities and strongly cautions against emotional trading in the volatile currency market.
Individuals unfamiliar with economic terminology are advised to disregard this analysis to prevent future misinterpretation of key figures and their underlying context.
A base dollar price of 105,000 Toman is projected, derived from liquidity models and specific economic factors. This forecast assumes stable conditions and a continued increase in national liquidity.
The government possesses the capability to suppress the dollar price, potentially maintaining it around 90,000 Toman, even when the underlying market value is estimated at 105,000 Toman.
A dollar price below 105,000 Toman is identified as a buying opportunity for the entire year, particularly towards its end, provided no major unforeseen events occur.
An upper bound of 126,000 Toman is projected for the dollar, reflecting increased geopolitical risks such as budget challenges, oil-related pressures, FATF concerns, and uranium enrichment activities, as long as these risks remain within current parameters and do not escalate to major conflicts or new significant sanctions.
In the event of severe risk mechanism activation, such as war or new comprehensive sanctions, the dollar price could unpredictably escalate significantly to 150,000, 160,000, or even 200,000 Toman, a level beyond current analytical predictability.
Earlier analyses indicated a dollar price of 68,000 Toman driven by liquidity growth, with an 84,000 Toman upper bound due to Republican political prospects. This clarification addresses listener confusion regarding past figures, emphasizing the specific context and conditions under which those predictions were made.
Frustration arises from listener misinterpretations of previous predictions, where a past figure of 68,000 Toman was incorrectly recalled as a current estimate, despite recent market movements nearing 89,000 Toman. This highlights the challenges of detailed communication in a volatile market.
Near the end of the year, an increased demand for banknotes may lead to temporary price increases. If the dollar rate consistently holds strong within the 90,000 to 100,000 Toman range, frequently bouncing off 90,000, it indicates a robust support level.
A strategic buying opportunity is present if the dollar price firmly maintains its position between 90,000 and 100,000 Toman. A clear buying signal emerges if the price shows signs of approaching the 80,000 Toman channel from 90,000 Toman.
For individuals considering converting their assets, the current dollar rate, which is at its highest point due to observable risks, could present a favorable conversion opportunity.
Over the long term, the dollar is expected to appreciate inherently, while the national currency's value is anticipated to decline.
Investors are strongly cautioned against making trading decisions based on panic or emotional reactions, as such actions often lead to errors including incorrect transfers, counterfeit currency purchases, frozen digital assets, or government intervention.
In the long term, the dollar inherently appreciates as the national currency depreciates; therefore, short-term emotional responses should be avoided.
| KeyInsight | Value/Range | Conditions/Context | Implication/Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Dollar Price Forecast | 105,000 Toman | Stable conditions, increasing national liquidity | Represents the underlying market value. |
| Government Price Suppression Level | ~90,000 Toman | Government intervention capability | Distinguish between suppressed and fundamental value. |
| General Buying Opportunity | Below 105,000 Toman | For the entire year, especially year-end | Consider purchasing at this level or below. |
| Upper Bound with Contained Risks | 126,000 Toman | Heightened risks (FATF, uranium, budget, oil) but no war/major new sanctions | Expect this level if risks increase but remain manageable. |
| Extreme Risk Scenario | 150,000 - 200,000+ Toman | Activation of severe risk mechanisms (war, new comprehensive sanctions) | Beyond current analytical prediction; avoid engagement. |
| Current Market Support/Resistance Zone | 90,000 - 100,000 Toman | Price consistently holds or bounces within this range | Indicates market strength; watch for breakouts or dips. |
| Strategic Short-Term Buying Signal | Approaching 80,000 Toman from 90,000, or strong hold at 90,000-100,000 | Price drops below 90,000, or consistently bounces off 90,000 within the 90-100k range | Act quickly to purchase. |
| Long-Term Currency Trend | N/A | Inherent economic fundamentals of the national currency | Dollar appreciates, national currency depreciates over time. |
| Warning on Emotional Trading | N/A | Market volatility and sudden price movements | Panic leads to costly mistakes (incorrect transfers, scams, asset freezes, government intervention). |
