29 Sept 2025
The global markets are experiencing the largest S&P 500 crash since the pandemic, primarily driven by new, steep tariffs imposed by Donald Trump, which has significantly increased recession probabilities according to JP Morgan. Despite the widespread fear and sell-off in traditional markets, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are demonstrating surprising resilience, leading to speculation that they may have already priced in the negative news.
The S&P 500 is experiencing its most significant crash since the pandemic, leading to fears of a possible recession. JP Morgan has increased the probability of a deep global recession to 60% due to current market conditions.
Donald Trump's imposition of substantial new tariffs, some reaching up to 90%, is the primary catalyst for the current market turmoil. These tariffs were not previously factored into market prices, causing significant investor fear.
While the S&P 500 is performing 'horrifically' and gold is selling off, Bitcoin has entered a 'buy zone' and exhibits surprising strength, even outperforming traditional assets. Ethereum, however, has dropped below $1600.
This market crash is potentially a calculated plan by the Trump administration to compel the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and implement quantitative easing (money printing). This action would facilitate the refinancing of the United States' $7 trillion external debt.
Major economies such as Taiwan, Vietnam, and India are offering zero tariffs to counteract the US tariffs, suggesting a potential de-escalation of the trade war. Donald Trump's own 'done deal' post further indicates an end to future tariff increases.
Beyond economic factors, geopolitical tensions, specifically the Iran-Israel situation and the possibility of a US attack on Iran, represent potential 'black swan events' that could negatively impact global markets.
If a resolution to the tariff disputes is achieved, the current market levels for cryptocurrencies could represent a market bottom. Quantitative easing (money printing) from the Federal Reserve is essential for a market turnaround, and an emergency meeting announcement from the Fed or Trump is desired this week.
Anticipated trades have been executed and are currently slightly negative. Ethereum has a stop loss at $1,500, while Bitcoin currently has no stop loss for specific small trades (valued at $300,000). The strategy aims to validate the theory that the market has already priced in recent negative news.
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Despite short-term volatility and recession fears, most assets (excluding Ethereum and Solana) are holding stable. Confidence in positions is maintained, and new, small ones are being opened. Carlo Financial Academy is promoted for learning to thrive in turbulent markets, secure crypto jobs (including at Evex), and generate passive income with up to 100% annual returns.
A critical family office meeting is being attended to advance the creation of Evex US, focusing on decentralized banking and credit, as part of the broader Evex ecosystem.
In my opinion, if countries truly find peace with tariffs, this current market downturn could literally be the bottom.
| Key Insight | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Downturn Driver | The S&P 500's largest crash since the pandemic is primarily due to Donald Trump's steep, unpriced tariffs, causing significant market fear. |
| Recession Likelihood Increase | JP Morgan now estimates a 60% chance of a deep global recession, directly attributing this increased risk to the recently imposed tariffs. |
| Crypto Market Resilience | Bitcoin demonstrates unexpected strength, landing in a 'buy zone' and outperforming traditional assets like the S&P 500 and gold, suggesting prior pricing of bad news. |
| Tariff War De-escalation | Key economies (Taiwan, Vietnam, India) are responding by offering zero tariffs, and Trump's 'done deal' posts indicate a potential end to further tariff escalations. |
| Quantitative Easing Necessity | Market recovery hinges on quantitative easing (money printing) by the Fed, potentially aligned with a broader strategy to refinance $7 trillion in US debt. |
