29 Sept 2025
The nation currently grapples with profound economic distress, evidenced by overwhelming public concern regarding inflation, currency rates, and daily living costs. While immediate negotiations offer a crucial glimmer of hope to slow the worsening conditions, sustainable long-term prosperity fundamentally depends on comprehensive internal structural reforms and robust individual financial strategies.
The Iranian populace experiences significant distress, with public inquiries overwhelmingly focused on the dollar exchange rate, ongoing negotiations, rent, general costs, and inflation, reflecting a deeply disheartening economic reality.
Observing other nations reveals that even countries lacking significant resources maintain stable, predictable economies, foster global connections, and allow their citizens to lead lives free from constant worry about daily economic fluctuations, contrasting sharply with Iran's current situation.
Despite being one of the world's most potentially prosperous nations, Iran has become 'worn out, old, and tired.' This decline is largely attributed to a long-held perception that the entire world is an adversary, failing to recognize that other nations pursue their own interests and often engage in cooperation following negotiations.
After years of missed opportunities and 'burning many options,' Iran now faces the unavoidable necessity of engaging in negotiations, which is no longer a choice but a mandatory step for the country's future.
International figures, such as former U.S. President Trump, despite initial aggressive tactics, require diplomatic successes to consolidate their political standing, making Iran a crucial element in demonstrating an ability to achieve quick negotiation outcomes for such international actors.
While negotiations offer a small sense of hope, a 'breath of fresh air,' and motivation for the populace, their immediate economic effect is limited to slowing the rate at which conditions worsen. They do not instantly improve economic indicators, and prices, due to stickiness, will not significantly decrease in the short term.
Over the medium term, negotiations can start to show more tangible effects. Price stickiness may diminish, potentially leading to a decrease in the dollar exchange rate and a reduction in inflationary expectations, causing markets to be influenced.
The only path to sustainable long-term economic improvement lies in implementing fundamental internal structural reforms. Without these essential changes, any benefits derived from negotiations or external financial injections will be temporary and ultimately unsustainable, leading to repeated economic crises.
The national economy is likened to a deeply flawed factory or organization plagued by parallel and conflicting decision-making, a dysfunctional structure, severe conflicts of interest, and managerial incompetence. It suffers from corruption, nepotism, and a lack of accountability, where rules are arbitrarily changed.
National progress is dependent on two complementary pillars: robust foreign relations and attracting international investment, and significant internal structural reforms. The current state sees the 'internal structural reform' pillar severely damaged, indicating that even successful external negotiations will fail to yield lasting prosperity without addressing domestic issues.
A critical observation highlights that even high-ranking economic officials, such as past economy ministers, demonstrate a lack of understanding of basic economic statistics and official government data, further contributing to the dysfunctional national economic structure.
While macro-level economic events undeniably have an impact, a significant portion (80%) of personal financial well-being stems from individual actions in household economics. This includes fostering proper saving habits, avoiding financial mistakes, and understanding financial psychology, rather than solely focusing on global economic trends.
Instead of attempting to predict market movements or blaming external political figures for financial losses, individuals should prioritize risk management. This involves having plans for various market scenarios (e.g., dollar falling, stabilizing, or rising) and utilizing tools like Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) and options to mitigate potential risks.
Given the current budget deficit, excessive government spending, and lack of productivity, an optimal dollar exchange rate for Iran is estimated to be in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 Toman, with rates below 80,000 Toman considered highly optimal (e.g., 78,000 or 75,000 Toman).
Adopting the perspective of Nasim Taleb, individuals are advised against the futile pursuit of predicting market tops, bottoms, or trying to outperform the market. Instead, the focus should be on preparing for and managing risk across various potential scenarios.
True national progress necessitates two fundamental pillars: robust foreign relations and investment, coupled with decisive internal structural reforms; neglecting the latter renders any external successes insufficient for enduring prosperity.
| Insight | Description |
|---|---|
| Public Economic Distress | Overwhelming public concern centers on dollar rates, inflation, rent, and general living costs, reflecting profound national economic anxiety and disappointment. |
| Iran's Potential vs. Reality | Despite being one of the world's richest in potential, Iran suffers from economic exhaustion, attributed to a misguided 'enemy mindset' and neglect of self-interest-driven global cooperation. |
| Negotiation as a Necessity | Years of missed opportunities have made negotiation an unavoidable and crucial step, offering a temporary reprieve by slowing economic deterioration, though not an immediate solution for improvement. |
| Two Pillars of Progress | Lasting national progress requires both robust foreign relations (negotiation) and fundamental internal structural reforms. Without the latter, external successes are fleeting. |
| Focus on Household Economics | While macro events impact, a significant portion (80%) of personal financial stability derives from individual financial literacy, savings, avoiding mistakes, and mastering financial psychology, rather than solely external factors. |
| Importance of Risk Management | Rather than market prediction, individuals should focus on scenario planning and risk management using tools like DCA and options, preparing for various market movements (up, down, stable). |
| Critique of Economic Leadership | High-ranking economic officials demonstrate a poor grasp of basic economic statistics and government data, contributing to the systemic flaws and lack of effectiveness in the national economic structure. |
