10 Oct 2025
This discussion emphasizes making a few optimal investment decisions annually rather than constant stressful reactions to market news. It advocates for adopting a dollar-based mindset in all financial analyses to simplify decision-making and protect asset value against local currency depreciation.
Investors should focus on making a few optimal decisions annually to preserve asset value and improve lifestyle, rather than being constantly stressed by daily market fluctuations or news.
Markets sometimes present valuation opportunities where assets, despite potential short-term difficulties, are genuinely valuable and should be acquired. This principle applies to various assets, including Bitcoin, silver, and gold.
Past investment decisions, including the decision not to act, significantly influence current and future choices, sometimes limiting available opportunities. This is exemplified by not selling shares before major conflicts or refraining from specific real estate investments like in Tehran.
Individuals should avoid succumbing to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) or making impulsive decisions based on past missed opportunities, especially when asset prices have significantly increased. Hasty purchases at elevated prices often lead to regret.
Iranian investors face a unique challenge of needing to analyze investments from two perspectives—the rial value and the dollar value—which complicates decision-making and can lead to errors.
To simplify and improve investment decisions, individuals should entirely remove rial from their calculations and conduct all financial analyses in dollar terms. This approach clarifies returns and simplifies the understanding of asset performance for various investments, despite rial-based transactions.
The current dollar market shows a price around 112,200 tomans, which is above the perceived fair value of 105,000 tomans and significantly higher than earlier recommended entry points around 80-85,000 tomans; it is considered highly unlikely for the dollar to drop below 100,000 tomans.
To mitigate the stress of rial depreciation, investors should gradually convert their rials into dollars. This involves making an initial purchase (e.g., at 110-112,000 tomans) and then adding more if the price approaches the fair value of 105,000 tomans, rather than waiting for an elusive perfect low price.
The decision between holding physical dollars and Tether (USDT) depends on the individual's knowledge, risk tolerance, and technical proficiency in cryptocurrency.
For those with limited knowledge of crypto or higher risk aversion, holding physical US dollars is recommended, preferably newer bills issued after 2017 and free from significant damage.
Investors with good technical knowledge, an understanding of security, and the ability to manage transactions through reliable sources while avoiding direct Iranian exchanges can consider Tether.
Iranian accounts are vulnerable to asset freezing due to global sanctions and perceived associations with sanctioned entities, even if indirect. Therefore, using Tether requires advanced knowledge to navigate these risks, including sourcing from reputable, non-Iranian platforms and managing secure wallets.
In the long term, the national currency's value unfortunately always depreciates, and by adopting a dollar-based approach, investors can avoid unexpected adverse financial outcomes.
| category | recommendation |
|---|---|
| Investment Approach | Focus on making a few optimal decisions annually to preserve wealth and improve lifestyle, rather than reacting to daily market noise. |
| Market Entry Timing | Identify and acquire assets when they are undervalued, even if it requires patience, as such opportunities lead to significant long-term returns. |
| Decision Consequences | Recognize that past investment decisions, or the lack thereof, fundamentally shape current and future opportunities. |
| Emotional Discipline | Avoid FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and impulsive purchases at high prices by controlling emotions and accepting past missed opportunities without regret. |
| Currency Perspective | Adopt a dollar-based thinking for all investment calculations, removing rial from analysis to simplify decision-making and clarify true asset performance. |
| Dollar Conversion Tactic | Convert rials to dollars gradually through phased purchases to alleviate stress from currency depreciation, rather than seeking a perfect, often unattainable, low price. |
| Physical Dollar vs. Tether | For less experienced investors, physical dollars are safer. Experienced investors with security knowledge can use Tether, but must be aware of potential freezing risks. |
| Tether Risk Mitigation | Those opting for Tether should use hardware wallets, diversify holdings, find reputable non-Iranian sources for transactions, and understand asset freezing risks for Iranian accounts. |
