29 Sept 2025
A short-term negative scenario is playing out in the crypto market, anticipating further dips in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. This outlook is primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions, new tariffs, and a significant dip in global liquidity, with expectations for a subsequent massive expansion of the M2 money supply after this final shakeout.
A short-term negative scenario is anticipated for the crypto market, potentially leading to lower prices for Ethereum and altcoins following an S&P 500 correction.
A long-term spot portfolio of top five altcoins, totaling $250,000, was previously established, distinct from current short-term leverage trading.
Bitcoin is currently consolidating sideways, while Ethereum's price action aligns with general market expectations.
Evdex's financial academy is launching as part of the Evex ecosystem, offering educational benefits and pursuing accreditation with a US educational institution to help individuals manage their finances effectively.
Rumors of a potential US attack on Iran are fueling FUD and driving down Bitcoin and other assets, although similar geopolitical events tend to be priced in and then forgotten.
New 25% tariffs imposed on foreign-made cars by Trump are contributing to short-term market panic, despite expectations that this impact will soon be fully priced in.
The primary reason for current market negativity is the global liquidity, specifically a recent third bottom in the M2 money supply, which Bitcoin's price typically lags.
The market expects one final dip, following the M2 money supply trend, before an eventual liquidity injection and expansion of the M2 supply.
Worst-case short-term Bitcoin price targets are projected at $84,000 and $81,000, with a possible squeeze lower if the Iran conflict escalates significantly.
Personal trades involve using 'super tiny risk' in the uncertain market environment, acknowledging that no market prediction can be 100% accurate.
Exceptional caution is advised for altcoins due to Bitcoin dominance being at an insane 62%, though a significant rejection block and buyside liquidity in this area could signal a turn.
A substantial $31 billion in capital currently remains outside the market, exceeding previous bear market levels, indicating significant potential for future market pumps upon a liquidity injection.
Long-term portfolios, such as the five top altcoins previously purchased, are held irrespective of short-term volatility, while short-term trades are managed with minimal risk.
A low-risk, high-value Ethereum trade ($20,000) was taken, with plans to add more if Bitcoin dominance peaks and the M2 money supply indicates a final shakeout, potentially building a new swing trade around $1,800.
A Bybit promotion offers up to $30,000 in initial deposit bonuses and up to 42% discount on trading fees via a provided referral link, which can be claimed even by existing users creating new accounts with different identification.
An ideal Bitcoin shakeout low is anticipated between $78,000 and $81,000, aligning with M2 money supply trends, while an important local low for Ethereum around $1,800 presents a potential entry point for additional trades.
The current market negativity is primarily fueled by a dip in global liquidity, specifically the M2 money supply, which Bitcoin's price typically lags before eventual expansion.
| Insight | Description |
|---|---|
| Market Outlook | A short-term negative crypto scenario is anticipated, with potential dips for Bitcoin (targeting $84k-$81k, possibly lower) and Ethereum (targeting $1,800). |
| Primary Market Driver | Global liquidity, specifically the M2 money supply, is the biggest reason for current market negativity, as Bitcoin's price typically lags M2 trends. |
| Geopolitical & Economic Factors | US-Iran tensions and new 25% US tariffs on foreign cars are fueling short-term panic but are largely considered already priced into the market. |
| Bitcoin Dominance & Altcoins | Bitcoin dominance is currently high at 62%, making altcoins weak; however, a potential reversal in dominance is suggested by rejection blocks and buyside liquidity. |
| Sideline Capital | $31 billion in capital remains out of the market, exceeding bear market levels, indicating significant future pump potential upon liquidity injection. |
| Trading Strategy | Short-term trades are managed with 'super tiny risk' due to market uncertainty, while long-term portfolios are maintained irrespective of short-term volatility. |
| Long-Term Market View | The current dip is likely a final shakeout before a massive expansion of the M2 money supply and subsequent long-term market growth. |
