29 Sept 2025
Navigating post-conflict markets necessitates the adoption of resilient financial strategies and diversified portfolios to withstand unexpected "black swan" events. This approach involves avoiding fragile systems, maintaining ample liquidity, and acknowledging the illusion of control to ensure long-term financial security and adaptability.
Following recent conflicts and a temporary ceasefire, individuals must prioritize developing resilient financial strategies and diversified portfolios to withstand unexpected "black swan" events, moving away from past complacency regarding low-probability, high-impact risks.
Strategies should be antifragile, meaning they benefit from disorder and uncertainty. People often disregard "black swan" events, like the turkey example (expecting daily feeding until slaughter), but these unpredictable occurrences necessitate preparing for the unexpected rather than assuming past stability guarantees future outcomes.
Individuals should distance themselves from fragile financial systems, such as conventional banks, stock markets, and centralized exchanges, where assets can be easily controlled or confiscated. It is crucial to maintain direct control over a significant portion of personal assets.
Extreme caution is advised against reliance on a single source for income or asset allocation, as demonstrated by recent events where single-source income streams faced severe disruption. Spreading investments across various asset classes is essential for security.
Maintaining substantial liquidity and excess capacity is critical, enabling individuals to capitalize on market downturns or "black swan" events by purchasing assets at depressed prices. This strategic reserve allows individuals to thrive during crises.
The belief in absolute control over market outcomes, often fueled by astrology or technical analysis, is a fallacy. Recognizing the inherent unpredictability of the world promotes decisions focused on risk management and resilience, such as utilizing insurance mechanisms.
Proactive planning and preparedness during periods of stability are essential to mitigate the impact of sudden, unforeseen disruptions. Failing to prepare during calm leaves individuals vulnerable and prone to reactive, potentially damaging, decisions when crises strike.
The optimal exchange rate for the US Dollar is currently around 80,000-83,000 Toman, with current prices around 83,000. Individuals needing USD are advised to purchase within this range, potentially using dollar-cost averaging (DCA) for purchases if uncertain about future price movements.
The optimal price for a global ounce of silver was 30-32, with the current price at 36. Investors previously advised to buy 50% at optimal prices can now consider purchasing 30-40% at the current price, which still offers optimality given the dollar exchange rate.
Significant price drops for gold are not anticipated. Investors are recommended to purchase physical gold in two stages, considering the optimal dollar price, without excessive focus on the global ounce price.
Investing in gold coins (Sikke) is not recommended due to significant price bubbles. There is a high probability that the bubble value will not be recoverable, leaving investors with only the intrinsic gold value.
For long-term security and control, physical ownership of assets like gold and silver is strongly preferred over online or digital holdings, especially given past market closures and uncertainties.
For personal consumption, buying smaller, lower-priced real estate units is advisable. However, real estate as a pure investment, especially in Tehran, is considered illiquid and sub-optimal for years to come, with renting often being more economical.
Storing cryptocurrencies in cold storage or hardware wallets is paramount for security, avoiding centralized exchanges where funds can be lost or frozen. Personal control over digital assets is as important as physical control over other valuables.
Employing a barbell investment strategy involves allocating 80-90% of funds to secure, low-risk assets (like Bitcoin in a hardware wallet) and a smaller, 10% portion to high-risk, high-return strategies (like options or altcoins) to potentially boost overall portfolio returns while maintaining safety.
For those with limited crypto knowledge, a strong focus on Bitcoin is recommended, avoiding altcoins or overly diversified portfolios. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is advised, gradually buying Bitcoin during price dips to mitigate risk.
New investors are advised to avoid the Iranian stock market due to inherent systemic risks and poor long-term performance compared to the dollar. Existing investors or professionals with specific advantages (tax exemptions, specialized knowledge) may use option strategies with a small portion (e.g., 20%) of their capital.
Many foreign centralized exchanges and brokers operating with Iranian clients are fraudulent, acting as "leeches" that facilitate capital outflow and lead to significant financial losses without regulatory recourse. They are not legitimate international financial institutions for Iranian users.
Individuals with significant capital (e.g., 30,000-40,000 USD and above) intending to engage in international financial activities are strongly advised to obtain residency in another country (e.g., Oman, Dubai) to open legitimate bank accounts and manage investments, thereby avoiding risky brokers and combating capital outflow.
Recent events have profoundly altered people's lifestyles, mindsets, consumption patterns, and investment priorities, similar to the impact of the pandemic. Businesses must anticipate and adapt to these shifts in consumer behavior and market dynamics for future success.
Prepare during times of peace for inevitable disruptions, because the world is constantly pregnant with unexpected events.
| Principle | Description | Actionable_Advice |
|---|---|---|
| Antifragility | Design strategies and portfolios that benefit from shocks and uncertainty, rather than being vulnerable to 'Black Swan' events. | Assume unpredictable events will occur; build resilience, not just robustness. |
| System Avoidance | Stay away from fragile centralized systems where assets can be easily controlled, frozen, or lost (banks, stock exchanges, some online platforms). | Maintain direct control over a large portion of assets; use physical storage or self-custody solutions. |
| Diversification | Avoid relying on a single source for income or asset class for financial security. | Allocate assets across various uncorrelated investments; diversify income streams. |
| Liquidity & Capacity | Hold excess cash or highly liquid assets to seize opportunities during market downturns or crises. | Maintain a significant 'cash reserve' or equivalent to buy assets at discounted prices during 'Black Swan' events. |
| Control Illusion | Recognize that complete control over market events is impossible; dismiss deterministic predictions. | Focus on managing risks and building resilience through strategic decisions like insurance, rather than predicting outcomes. |
| Proactive Planning | Prepare and plan thoroughly during periods of stability for inevitable future disruptions. | Establish robust strategies in calm times to avoid being reactive and making poor decisions during crises. |
| USD Investment | The optimal exchange rate for the US Dollar is around 80,000-83,000 Toman. | Buy USD in the 80,000-83,000 Toman range; consider Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA). |
| Physical Gold/Silver | Physical ownership is preferred for security; avoid gold coin bubbles. | Purchase physical gold/silver in stages; avoid 'Sikke' due to premium bubbles. |
| Real Estate (Investment) | Real estate, especially in Tehran, is not recommended as an investment due to illiquidity and poor returns. | Consider renting rather than buying for investment; focus on smaller units for personal consumption. |
| Cryptocurrency Strategy | Prioritize security, focus on Bitcoin, and use advanced strategies for riskier allocations. | Use hardware wallets; apply a Barbell strategy (80-90% secure Bitcoin, 10% high-risk options); DCA Bitcoin; avoid altcoins. |
| Iranian Stock Market | High systemic risks and generally underperforms USD in the long run. | New investors should avoid; existing investors can use option strategies with a small capital portion (20%). |
| International Exchanges | Many foreign centralized exchanges and brokers targeting Iranians are fraudulent and lead to capital loss. | For significant capital (>$30-40k), obtain residency in another country (e.g., Oman) to access legitimate international banking/investing. |
| Business Adaptation | Societal changes post-conflict will fundamentally alter consumer behavior and market dynamics. | Businesses must anticipate and adapt to shifts in lifestyle, mindset, and service usage to remain relevant. |
