16 Oct 2025
Bitcoin continues to experience a short-term bearish divergence, wiping out liquidity and reaching oversold RSI levels, while altcoins like Ethereum and XRP face significant drops. Despite immediate pressures, the market anticipates a potential shift towards bullishness in Q4, historically a strong period for Bitcoin, offering opportunities amidst current sideways and bearish trends.
Bitcoin has been playing out a short-term bearish divergence, wiping out liquidity below its price and hitting oversold levels on the RSI. A slight bounce or sideways consolidation is expected for at least one to two days to reset the RSI, but this does not guarantee a bottom.
A massive bearish divergence, active since July-August, indicates a larger slowdown and cool-off for Bitcoin, not necessarily the end of the bull market, but a lack of high-momentum all-time high breakouts. Historically, August and September are often red months for Bitcoin, while Q4, particularly October, tends to be the most bullish period, with non-stop bullish price action observed in Octobers since 2018-2019.
Bitcoin price perfectly rejected from resistance just above $117,000. Potential for an inverse head and shoulders bullish pattern exists if the price bounces soon and reclaims $117,000. Major support levels are around $113,000, $110,000, and significantly between $106.7K to $107.6K. Resistance levels include $114.5K and strong resistance at $117,000.
Liquidity below the price, specifically around $114,000, has been wiped out. Most liquidity now sits above the current price, between $118,000 and $119,000, which will act as future resistance points.
Bitcoin dominance is beginning a short-term rebound due to a bullish divergence, which is generally not favorable for altcoins, leading to bearish price action or underperformance relative to Bitcoin.
Ethereum trades within a months-long sideways range, with strong support between 3.9K and 4.1K and resistance at 4.8K to 4.9K. The price failed to break back above the 4470-4.5K area, flipping it into new resistance, and subsequently broke below 4250-4280 before bouncing from the 4060-4.1K support.
Solana broke below $230 but bounced from the next support target of $215-$216. Despite short-term bearish moves influenced by an active bearish divergence, Solana technically remains in a larger bullish trend, forming higher lows and highs, with a crucial hold level at $190-$200 to maintain this structure.
XRP is influenced by a massive weekly bearish divergence predicted months prior, resulting in a larger cool-off. The price is currently range-bound between support at 270-280 and resistance at 310-315, and is expected to follow Bitcoin's short-term relief, maintaining its range-bound movement.
Chainlink has confirmed a lower low, indicating a major breakdown in its larger price structure and potentially starting a larger bearish trend. Reclaiming $22 is crucial to avoid this extended bearish trend. Expected resistance is around $22-$22.30, with significant support at $19.50-$20.
Bitcoin and crypto funding rates are below neutral, with some Ethereum rates in negative territory, indicating strong interest in shorting. This scenario could precede a bullish move caused by short liquidations. Traders can utilize these market conditions for potential opportunities.
Personal Bitcoin long positions have been closed in profit, with profits taken around $117,000, and a stop-loss in profits activating due to the recent drop. Traders seeking similar opportunities can use exchanges like Bitex and Two Bits, which offer significant trading and deposit bonuses, including no-KYC access from many countries.
Usually Q4, especially near the beginning of the year as well, but especially Q4 ends up usually being the most bullish time for Bitcoin, historically speaking.
| Asset | Key Level | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $117,000 | Major resistance and rejection point; potential inverse head and shoulders formation if reclaimed. |
| Bitcoin | $106.7K - $107.6K | Significant support area. |
| Bitcoin | Oversold RSI (4-hour) | Indicates a likely short-term bounce or sideways consolidation, not necessarily the bottom. |
| Bitcoin | Q4 (October) | Historically the most bullish period for Bitcoin, with non-stop bullish action since 2018-2019. |
| Ethereum | 3.9K - 4.1K | Crucial area of support, where buying interest is strong. |
| Ethereum | 4.8K - 4.9K | Major resistance area, where selling or profit-taking occurs. |
| Solana | $215 - $216 | Short-term support, from which the price bounced after breaking $230. |
| Solana | $190 - $200 | Crucial long-term support level to maintain the larger bullish price structure. |
| XRP | 270 - 280 | Strong area of support, seeing crucial bounces. |
| XRP | 310 - 315 | Strong area of resistance, causing rejections. |
| Chainlink | $22 | Crucial level to reclaim to avoid a larger bearish trend; currently acting as resistance. |
| Chainlink | $19.50 - $20 | Significant support area, where the price recently bounced. |
