15 Oct 2025
The cryptocurrency market is on the brink of significant movement, with Bitcoin potentially nearing a major breakout ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. This analysis delves into the expected 25 basis point rate cut, its market implications, and detailed price action for key altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Chainlink, alongside a personal trading strategy.
An FOMC meeting is scheduled in less than 24 hours, where an interest rate cut is highly probable, specifically on September 17th at 6:00 p.m. GMT. This event holds significant implications for financial markets due to increased liquidity.
The current Fed funds rate is 4.5% on the high end, with expectations for a new rate of 4.25%, indicating a 25 basis point rate cut (0.25%). The futures market prices in a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 4% chance of a 50 basis point cut, meaning a 25 basis point cut is already largely factored into market prices.
A 25 basis point rate cut, being highly anticipated, is expected to result in relatively neutral market volatility. However, any deviation from this expectation, such as no change or a 50 basis point cut, would likely trigger a massive, volatile market movement. Lower interest rates are bullish for markets as they make borrowing easier, stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply through fractional reserve banking, while higher rates benefit dollar holders but are detrimental to markets.
Approximately half an hour after the interest rate decision, the Jerome Powell press conference will occur, where the Federal Reserve Chairman discusses future rate decisions, potentially influencing short-term market movements.
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows a super trend indicator in green, suggesting a larger bull market, though a massive uninvalidated bearish divergence remains. The 3-day chart nears a bullish crossover in the MACD, indicating growing short-term bullish momentum and expected relief. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is bouncing from a support area between $106.7K and $107.6K, with further support expected at $110K, $113K, and $113.5K. Major resistance is at $117K, with a confirmed breakout targeting $120K and then the all-time high near $124K. The 4-hour chart shows a short-term bullish trend forming higher lows and higher highs, but a possible unconfirmed bearish divergence is forming if higher highs in price coincide with lower highs in RSI.
The Bitcoin liquidation heat map shows the price taking out liquidity near $117K, previously predicted as a short-term bullish move. A significant amount of liquidity is now building above the price, mostly around $118K (between $117.5K and $119K), indicating a likely retest of this level soon. Low funding rates on exchanges and substantial liquidity above the current price suggest a potential short squeeze, where the liquidation of short positions could cause a sharp bullish price action.
A long position on Bitcoin is maintained, considering the ongoing short-term bullish trend. Stop losses are set in slight profits above entry points to secure gains in case of a market crash. Funding rates for the Bitcoin trading pair are at zero or potentially negative, allowing for earning passive income by holding the long position. A take-profit point is considered around $120K after a confirmed breakout above $117K, involving a slight reduction in trade size to secure profits rather than closing the entire position.
The 3-day Bitcoin dominance chart is potentially forming a short-term bullish divergence, where lower lows in dominance are paired with slight higher lows in the RSI. If confirmed, this could lead to a short-term bullish relief for Bitcoin dominance, causing some major altcoins like Ethereum to underperform Bitcoin, meaning they might still pump but less significantly than Bitcoin.
Ethereum remains in a sideways price range on the 3-day chart, between support at $3.9K-$4.1K and resistance at $4.8K-$4.9K, displaying neutral short-term momentum. On the 4-hour chart, a slight candle close below a short-term support area has occurred, which is now being retested. Bulls need to quickly reclaim this area to avoid further downside. Short-term resistance levels are at $4480-$4.5K, then $4530, followed by major resistance at $4580 and $4630-$4640.
Solana has confirmed a breakout above the Fibonacci level at $230 and is currently retesting and finding support at this level, which is bullish. Further support is at $215, and major support is between $190 and $200. The next significant resistance is around $260-$265, with a target of $290-$300 if these levels are broken.
XRP's weekly chart technically shows an uninvalidated bearish divergence. On the daily chart, the price is moving sideways, with a potential unconfirmed inverse head and shoulders pattern forming. Resistance is expected between $310-$313 and a stronger area between $330-$340. Support levels are at $2.90 (especially $285-$290) and $275. Despite short-term setbacks, the breakout from a descending triangle pattern is still active, with a price target just above $380, representing new all-time highs, although resistance points like $310 and $330-$340 must be overcome.
Chainlink remains in a longer-term bullish trend, forming higher lows and higher highs, but a potential lower high is forming. A break below the previous low at $22.10-$22.30 would be a bearish signal, potentially leading to a move down to $19-$20, particularly $20. Current resistance levels are at $25.20 and major resistance at $26.70-$27. Chainlink is currently lacking momentum, trading sideways, likely due to bullish Bitcoin price action coupled with a bullish Bitcoin dominance, which can neutralize altcoin movements.
Crypto trading can be conducted on BTEX, a no-KYC exchange offering up to $25,000 USDT in trading bonuses. Another option is Two Bit, also a no-KYC exchange, providing up to $10,000 USDT in trial fund bonuses, $8,000 USDT in withdrawable USDT, a free $30 bonus, and one month VIP3 upgrade upon account creation without a deposit, specifically through provided referral links.
Lower interest rates are very bullish for markets, pumping markets towards the upside, but are unfavorable if holding dollars.
| Asset | Key Event/Indicator | Outlook/Impact | Key Levels (Support/Resistance/Targets) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | FOMC Interest Rate Decision (25 BPS cut expected) | Potential major breakout; neutral volatility if expected cut occurs, high volatility if unexpected outcome. Generally bullish for markets. | Support: $106.7K-$107.6K, $110K, $113K. Resistance: $117K (major), $120K, $124K (ATH). |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | Liquidation Heat Map & Funding Rates | Significant liquidity building above $118K. Low/negative funding rates suggest potential for a short squeeze and further bullish action. | Liquidity target: $118K (approx.) |
| Ethereum (ETH) | 3-day & 4-hour Price Charts | Trading in a neutral sideways range on 3-day. At a critical 'make or break' point on 4-hour, requiring quick reclamation of broken support. | Support: $3.9K-$4.1K (3-day). Resistance: $4.8K-$4.9K (3-day). Short-term Resistance: $4480-$4.5K, $4530, $4580, $4630-$4640 (4-hour). |
| Solana (SOL) | Fibonacci Level Retest | Confirmed breakout and successful retest of $230 is bullish, continuing the longer-term bullish trend. | Support: $230, $215, $190-$200. Resistance: $260-$265, $290-$300. |
| XRP | Descending Triangle Breakout & Potential Inverse H&S | Breakout pattern remains active towards new all-time highs despite short-term setbacks. A potential inverse head and shoulders pattern is forming but unconfirmed. | Support: $2.90 ($285-$290), $275. Resistance: $310-$313, $330-$340. Price Target: Above $380. |
| Chainlink (LINK) | Longer-term Bullish Trend & Potential Lower High | Maintaining a bullish trend, but a confirmed break below $22.10-$22.30 would signal a bearish shift, potentially leading to $19-$20. | Critical Support: $22.10-$22.30 ($22). Resistance: $25.20, $26.70-$27. Potential downside: $19-$20. |
| Altcoins (General) | Bitcoin Dominance Bullish Divergence | If confirmed, a short-term bullish relief in Bitcoin dominance could cause major altcoins to underperform Bitcoin, pumping less significantly. | N/A |
