29 Sept 2025
Mohammad Sarfaraz, a member of Iran's Supreme Council of Cyberspace, predicts internet freedom in Iran by August 2026, driven by national necessity rather than policy change. He critiques current filtering policies, attributing their persistence to unfulfilled presidential promises, the overwhelming influence of security-oriented institutions, and flawed decision-making within the Council.
Fundamental changes in Iran's governance are anticipated to lead to internet freedom by August 2026, a shift expected due to national necessity rather than deliberate policy choice.
The President's electoral vow to lift internet filtering remains unaddressed over a year into his term, primarily due to impractical promises and the prioritization of a 'unity' slogan, which signifies alignment with powerful governing institutions rather than the public.
Governmental bodies outside the executive branch exert increasing power over the President and administrative apparatus, often overriding presidential promises and leading to decisions like maintaining filtering policies.
The Council's 32-clause resolution, adopted without proper deliberation or detailed voting, significantly restricts the President's ability to lift filtering, effectively making internet freedom a casualty of political maneuvering.
A strategic committee, predominantly composed of military, security, and judicial officials, decides on unfiltering, indicating a strong institutional barrier; conditions like requiring platforms to accept Iran's 'governance system' are ambiguous and impede unblocking.
Major international platforms like Telegram and Instagram are unlikely to comply with demands to host servers in Iran or accept specific conditions, largely due to international sanctions and their operational policies, making comprehensive unblocking unfeasible under current terms.
Iran's decision-making system regarding cyberspace is complex and opaque, characterized by a lack of stakeholder representation, insufficient technical expertise among high-ranking members, infrequent meetings, and a focus on restrictive measures rather than constructive development.
Filtering policies have proven ineffective, with approximately 80% of Iranian internet users relying on VPNs, which often compromise data security and contribute to the hacking of critical government and public databases. The policy results in significant economic losses for businesses and individuals.
Iran's approach to digital governance, characterized by an aspiration for absolute control and oversight over cyberspace, is a model not successfully implemented by any other country globally.
Extensive filtering leads to the emigration of highly skilled programmers and specialists whose professions depend on open internet access, representing a substantial loss of human capital for the country.
The government's attempts to counter satellite internet services like Starlink are deemed futile, as this technology represents an unstoppable global trend, akin to past unsuccessful efforts to block satellite television. Starlink's adoption is growing rapidly, bypassing domestic infrastructure limitations.
Despite official denials, a 'class-based' internet system exists, granting privileged access to faster, unfiltered internet to specific groups like journalists or companies, which is seen as discriminatory and a violation of constitutional rights to equal access.
Many crucial decisions made by the Supreme Council of Cyberspace, including the 32-clause resolution, are kept confidential, particularly when they are difficult to publicly defend, indicating a lack of transparency and accountability.
An ideal digital strategy involves establishing an independent and authoritative Minister of Communications, supported by a policy-focused council that promotes large-scale, beneficial domestic digital services, such as a comprehensive national health network, instead of focusing on restrictions.
We always want something, but the exact opposite happens, and we are unwilling to review and change this situation.
| InsightCategory | KeyObservation | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Internet Freedom Outlook | Prediction of internet freedom by Aug 2026, driven by national necessity rather than planned policy. | Current policies are unsustainable, forcing future change. |
| Filtering Policy Impediments | Presidential promises to lift filtering remain unfulfilled, overshadowed by 'unity' with powerful state institutions. | Executive power is constrained by other governing bodies. |
| Decision-Making Flaws | Supreme Council of Cyberspace's 32-clause resolution restricts unfiltering, adopted without transparent debate or stakeholder input. | Opaque and undemocratic processes perpetuate restrictive policies. |
| Effectiveness of Filtering | Filtering is ineffective; 80% of users employ VPNs, leading to data breaches and economic losses. | The policy fails its objectives and creates detrimental side effects. |
| Digital Governance Model | Iran's aspiration for absolute control over cyberspace is an unviable model, not achieved by any other nation. | The current approach is unrealistic and isolates Iran digitally. |
| Impact on Human Capital | Widespread filtering causes brain drain, as skilled programmers emigrate for better opportunities. | Loss of critical talent hinders national development and innovation. |
| Satellite Internet (Starlink) | Government efforts to counter Starlink are futile against its inevitable global expansion and direct mobile access capabilities. | Technological advancements will bypass national filtering efforts. |
| Transparency and Corruption | Council decisions are kept confidential, especially those difficult to defend, and large entities profit from the VPN market. | Lack of transparency fosters corruption and conflicts of interest. |
