16 Oct 2025
A decade ago, the world appeared more peaceful than ever, with violent conflict seemingly on the decline and specific claims made about the nature of warfare. Today, a re-evaluation of these predictions reveals a complex reality, where while some conflicts have cooled, new interstate wars and a sharp rise in overall conflict deaths challenge the notion that war was over.
In 2014, seven key claims suggested a decline in violent conflict, highlighting fewer conflict deaths, a near absence of interstate wars, democracies not fighting each other, fixed borders, conflicts mainly in formerly controlled areas, civil wars ending by diplomacy, and humanity being in its most peaceful historical period.
Some major conflicts active in 2014, such as the war in Afghanistan and ISIS's protostate in Iraq and Syria, have since concluded or significantly de-escalated, while civil wars in Yemen and Libya continue as protracted stalemates.
The last decade saw the eruption of several new civil wars and renewed violence from unresolved issues, including the devastating 2020 Tigray war in Ethiopia, and ongoing conflicts in Sudan, Yemen, and Myanmar.
Multiple African nations, including Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, Burkina Faso, and Mozambique, face destabilizing Islamist insurgencies that have resulted in tens of thousands of civilian casualties.
Contrary to 2014 predictions, interstate wars have resurfaced, notably the 2020 Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, the Israel-Hamas war that became a regional crisis, and Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking the first large-scale conquest attempt by a major power since World War II.
Global conflict deaths between 2014 and 2024 totaled approximately 1.2 million from state-based conflicts and 1.5 million when including all violent conflicts, three times higher than the preceding decade, with 2022 recording the highest death toll since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
The claim that democracies do not fight each other remains largely true, and most international borders continue to hold, though several dozen territorial disputes, particularly in Africa and Asia, are intensifying.
A significant majority of ongoing armed conflicts occur in countries that were under foreign occupation in the 20th century, either through colonialism or Soviet dictatorship, with arbitrary borders and unequal resource distribution creating persistent issues.
Fewer civil wars now end through diplomatic means, with an increased prevalence of outright victories or stalemates that often represent temporary pauses rather than lasting resolutions due to unresolved underlying causes.
Wars are often exacerbated by external powers providing support or arms to various factions, as seen in the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Western support for Ukraine against Russian allies, and involvement by non-state actors like Islamist groups or criminal networks.
The post-Cold War expectation of a rules-based global order is now being challenged, transitioning towards a multipolar world where new alliances form and different nations assert spheres of power.
China's significant economic development has led to its emergence as a new superpower, with its manufacturing capacity matching the US and Europe combined, and its effective military budget growing substantially, while Europe has also begun rearming in response to shifting global dynamics.
Despite the recent sharp increase in violence, particularly in the last three years, the world remains in a relatively peaceful historical period when viewed against the backdrop of major past wars, though the future trend is uncertain.
The pervasive use of misinformation and propaganda as weapons in armed conflicts highlights the critical need for seeking nuanced and diverse perspectives to discern reliable information.
Ground News provides a platform that aggregates global news from diverse sources, allowing users to compare coverage, understand different narrative framings, and identify potential biases through features like the My News Bias dashboard, thereby fostering informed decision-making and a broader perspective on current events.
The world stands at a crossroads, with recent years marking an unusual increase in violence that challenges prior assumptions, yet global conflict deaths remain at historic lows compared to past centuries.
| Claim 2014 | Status in 2024 | Key Insights/Explanation |
|---|---|---|
| Less conflict deaths than ever. | False (Reversed) | Conflict deaths between 2014-2024 (1.2-1.5 million) are three times higher than the preceding decade, with 2022 having the highest death toll since 1994. The Tigray and Ukraine wars are major contributors. |
| Almost no more wars between countries. | False (Reversed) | Interstate wars have resurfaced, including Azerbaijan-Armenia, Israel-Hamas, and the Russia-Ukraine war, which is the first large-scale conquest by a major power in almost 80 years. |
| Democracies don't fight each other. | Still True | No wars have occurred between democracies, maintaining the pattern that war between nations remains an exception rather than the rule. |
| Borders are mostly fixed. | Largely True, but Challenged | Most international borders hold, but dozens of territorial disputes exist, some escalating (e.g., India-China, China-Taiwan, Venezuela-Guyana). |
| Most conflicts are in areas under foreign control (colonial/Soviet). | Still True | Almost all armed conflicts occur in countries formerly under 20th-century foreign occupation, stemming from arbitrary borders, unequal resource distribution, or power vacuums. |
| More civil wars are ending by diplomacy. | False (Reversed) | Fewer civil wars end diplomatically; there's an increase in outright victories or stalemates, which are often temporary pauses rather than permanent resolutions. |
| We're in the most peaceful period of history. | Qualified True/Challenged | While recent years saw sharply rising violence, in the grand scheme, deaths by war are still at historic lows compared to past centuries. The world is at a crossroads, with an uncertain future trend. |
