29 Sept 2025
Historical market advice suggests selling in May and exiting for the summer, a strategy currently correlated with traditional markets and widely discussed. However, present economic indicators and central bank actions indicate a potential shift, challenging the traditional 'Sell in May' premise for the current market cycle.
The 'Sell in May and Go Away' strategy, historically relevant for traditional markets, suggests selling assets in May and returning in September or October for the next leg of a bull market.
Relying solely on historical numerical data for market decisions is insufficient, as underlying factors significantly influence market outcomes, making simple historical comparisons often coincidental.
The Preferred Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge, showed a significant drop to 2.3%, moving closer to the Fed's 2% target, with core PCE dropping to 2.6%.
The US GDP contracted, turning negative, which indicates a slowing economy and potentially influenced recent Bitcoin price dumps.
The US faces a challenge of refinancing 7 trillion dollars of external debt at current high interest rates, making it an expensive endeavor for the economy.
Unlike other central banks, the Federal Reserve has maintained high rates and refrained from quantitative easing, contributing to economic contraction, but is expected to reduce rates in June following an FOMC meeting.
China's decision to waive and slash tariffs on some US imports suggests a potential de-escalation of the trade war, which could positively impact global trade and market sentiment.
The combination of decreasing inflation, contracting GDP, and anticipated Fed rate cuts suggests that the previously expected bull run has shifted, with the summer potentially being an inverse of the 'Sell in May' phenomenon.
Spot crypto holdings are maintained indefinitely, refraining from selling until significant profits are realized, while a final dip or liquidation event is sought before entering leveraged long trades.
Ideal targets for leveraged long entries are Bitcoin at $83,000 and Ethereum at $1,400, considered important resistance levels or retests before entering price discovery.
A two-day online event on May 7th and 8th will cover strategies for wealth building, financial literacy, blockchain, trading, and passive income in crypto, aiming for a 10x capital increase by 2025.
Considering inflation is nearing its target, GDP is contracting, and global liquidity dynamics are shifting, the anticipated market upswing from late last year has likely been delayed, indicating this summer could be the inverse of the traditional 'Sell in May' expectation.
| metric | status | implication |
|---|---|---|
| Sell in May Strategy | Historically relevant | Current economic shifts suggest the strategy may not apply this year, potentially leading to an inverse market outcome. |
| Inflation (PCE) | Dropped to 2.3% (near Fed's 2% target) | This significant drop in inflation increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing rate cuts. |
| US GDP | Contracted (negative growth) | The economic slowdown signaled by negative GDP growth creates pressure for the Fed to intervene with easing policies. |
| US External Debt | $7 trillion needs refinancing at high rates | The high cost of refinancing such substantial debt at current rates pushes the Fed towards reducing interest rates. |
| China Tariffs | Some waived/slashed | Easing trade tensions, indicated by tariff reductions, are positive for global market sentiment and economic stability. |
| Federal Reserve Policy | Rates maintained, cuts expected in June | Anticipated rate reductions and potential quantitative easing are expected to inject liquidity, reversing market trends. |
