29 Sept 2025
The crypto market, led by Ethereum and Bitcoin, is experiencing a significant downturn, attributed to unfavorable macroeconomic data and a strengthening dollar. New trading positions have been established on Ethereum and Bitcoin, based on technical analysis and a readiness to adapt to market movements.
Ethereum experienced a significant drop from $5,000 to $3,800, while Bitcoin also corrected, and altcoins are suffering considerably.
The US GDP came out higher than expected at 3.8%, alongside better-than-forecast jobless claims, indicating a supposedly strong economy.
Federal Reserve officials express unease with aggressive rate cuts due to a cooling job market and rising inflation, suggesting a low probability of multiple interest rate reductions this year.
The expectation of fewer interest rate cuts this year, possibly only one, combined with long-term bond yields increasing, indicates a lack of desired economic stimulation.
The dollar index (DXY) saw a strong rally from 96 to 98, which typically has a negative correlation with cryptocurrency performance.
A strong dollar signifies that institutions and 'smart money' are exiting high-risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, and moving into the dollar and higher-yielding long-term bonds to reduce portfolio risk.
A weaker dollar, increased money printing (quantitative easing), and a short-term rise in jobless numbers are desired conditions to prompt the Fed to reduce rates and stimulate the market.
Bitcoin has retested a previous level and is now declining, with a key area of interest for a potential long trade identified around $104,000 to $105,600.
Ethereum broke a flag pattern and is retesting an important support level at $3,800, where a small long trade was initiated, with another order placed at $3,800 and a potential stop loss at $3,500.
The current Ethereum long trade will be exited if no impulse, movement, or clear structure emerges, rather than strictly waiting for the stop loss.
A previous Ethereum long trade was successfully closed with a small profit, indicating overall positive performance despite market volatility.
The most favorable long entry for Ethereum is anticipated between $3,300 and $3,500, targeting a retest of this critical support/order block zone, with a stop loss around $3,200, contingent on increased market panic and leverage reduction.
Evex offers self-custodial, anonymous, and cost-effective trading compared to centralized exchanges, featuring gamification, XP points, and new listings like Pepe and Aster with substantial liquidity.
Users can claim up to 10% cashback on trading fees via a link in the video description, alongside access to an academy, affiliate system, leaderboards, and demo trading.
Bybit provides more tokens and liquidity but requires KYC and is not self-custodial, offering welcome rewards up to $100 and initial deposit bonuses up to $30,000 through its reward center.
Exclusive trade updates are provided in Telegram and Discord channels for users who deposit at least $300 on Bybit or Evex using specific links, with faster updates than YouTube.
Despite typical autumn being a positive season for crypto, current macroeconomic conditions are concerning, leading to a strategy of preparing for the worst while maintaining market awareness.
A quick course on trading strategies is recommended, offering valuable insights even for experienced traders.
A robust US economy, marked by strong GDP and low unemployment, paradoxically signals reduced monetary stimulation and a stronger dollar, which is detrimental to high-risk assets like cryptocurrency.
| Key Macroeconomic Indicator | Crypto Market Impact | Federal Reserve Stance | Dollar Index (DXY) Trend | Desired Market Conditions | Key Ethereum Trading Levels | Exchange Benefits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strong US GDP and Jobless Claims | Reduces the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and negatively impacting high-risk assets like crypto. | |||||
| Limits monetary stimulation, which is crucial for liquidity flow into cryptocurrency markets. | Uneasy with aggressive rate cuts amidst inflation and a cooling job market. | |||||
| Signals institutional flight from high-risk assets (crypto) into safer havens like the dollar and long-term bonds. | Significant strengthening of the US Dollar. | |||||
| Current robust economic data contradicts these conditions, impeding the Fed's willingness to stimulate the economy. | Weak dollar, quantitative easing, and increased jobless numbers. | |||||
| These technical levels are critical for identifying potential bounce opportunities or further downside risk for ETH. | Current retest of $3,800 support; ideal long entry between $3,300-$3,500. | |||||
| Provides traders with diverse options for managing assets and executing strategies based on their preferences for security, cost, and features. | Evex offers self-custodial, anonymous, and cheaper trading with gamification; Bybit offers high liquidity and bonuses. |
