29 Sept 2025
The cryptocurrency market has experienced a pump, driven by unexpected factors, including global economic stimuli and subtle policy shifts, which dictate future expectations and potential pitfalls. Prudent navigation requires a balanced approach to trading tools, acknowledging that the market's simplicity is deceptive and perfect prediction is unattainable.
The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, experienced a pump, nearing 100K, though Ethereum's volume remained low.
The recent pump was attributed to a third, external reason, distinct from previously discussed factors, setting expectations for future market behavior.
A balanced combination of trading tools, including holding spot assets like Ethereum and Bitcoin, is crucial, especially when active trade entry prices are missed, as it ensures overall portfolio growth during pumps.
Trump's 60-day executive order regarding a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve expired on May 5th without an announcement, creating uncertainty about a potentially bullish or bearish federal decision.
The Fed maintained interest rates as expected, but Jerome Powell expressed uncertainty about rate reductions, indicating a willingness to wait until 2026 for quantitative easing, which is a hawkish stance.
Tariffs imposed by Trump contributed to economic uncertainty and inflation concerns for the Fed, but major trade deals, including a potential UK-US agreement and confirmed US-China negotiations, emerged as positive news impacting the crypto market.
New Hampshire became the first U.S. state to approve investing up to 5% of its total funds in Bitcoin, while Arizona's bill to recognize Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as legal tender for public charges passed the House Commerce Committee.
China announced massive rate cuts and a $140 billion liquidity injection to support its economy, significantly contributing to the crypto market's pump due to its broad economic impact.
Bitcoin dominance reached nearly 65%, indicating a lack of liquidity in altcoins as Bitcoin absorbed most market capital, suggesting that a significant altcoin season awaits U.S. money printing or tax cuts.
Despite Powell's hawkish tone, the Fed spent $20 billion on three-year bonds, its largest single-day purchase since 2021, signaling a 'quiet' or 'shadow' form of quantitative easing and a potential pivot in monetary policy.
The M2 Money Supply trend, after a recent dip, indicates a positive price action for Bitcoin with a potential target of $150,000, serving as a reliable predictor for Bitcoin's movement.
The primary remaining obstacle for a significant altcoin season is the Federal Reserve's pivot towards explicit money printing, as other global economic factors like China's stimulus and trade deals are already aligning.
Holdings are primarily in spot positions for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, advising caution on low-volume breakouts, especially for Ethereum, and refraining from aggressive futures trading until the Fed initiates direct money printing.
Previous Bitcoin price targets like 86K might not materialize, leading to a re-evaluation of strategies, though a retest of the 91K area for Bitcoin or breaking 2100 for Ethereum (with sufficient volume) could present new opportunities for long trades.
Exclusive deposit bonuses and trading fee discounts are available for the community trading on Bybit.
Everything is slowly coming together, just not as fast as desired, with global economic shifts signaling potential market pivots despite a cautious stance from some central bank figures.
| category | insight |
|---|---|
| Market Drivers | China initiated massive rate cuts and a $140 billion liquidity injection to stimulate its economy, contributing significantly to the crypto market pump. |
| Market Drivers | The US Fed made its largest single-day purchase of three-year bonds ($20 billion) since 2021, acting as a 'shadow' quantitative easing despite a hawkish public stance. |
| Market Drivers | State-level Bitcoin adoption advanced, with New Hampshire approving Bitcoin investments and Arizona passing a bill for Bitcoin as legal tender for public charges. |
| Market Drivers | Major trade deals with the UK and renewed negotiations with China are expected to reduce economic uncertainty and positively impact global markets, including crypto. |
| Market Obstacles | Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates, indicating a willingness to wait until 2026 for easing, remains a key hurdle for broader market stimulus and altcoin liquidity. |
| Market Obstacles | Bitcoin dominance is at nearly 65%, sucking liquidity from altcoins; a true altcoin season hinges on overt money printing or tax cuts by the United States. |
| Trading Strategy | A balanced portfolio of spot holdings and cautious active trades is essential, prioritizing long-term gains over short-term predictions and low-volume breakouts. |
| Trading Strategy | Refrain from aggressively degen-style trading on low-volume breakouts; wait for explicit signals like the Fed's money printing to shift capital into higher-risk active trades. |
| Future Outlook | The M2 Money Supply suggests a potential Bitcoin target of $150,000, indicating a strong positive trajectory if underlying economic indicators hold. |
| Future Outlook | All factors are aligning for a significant market pivot and potential altcoin season, pending the Federal Reserve's direct pivot to explicit money printing. |
