29 Sept 2025
Recent market activity reflects short-term struggles driven by strong US economic data, persistent inflation, hawkish Federal Reserve policies, and new tariffs. Despite these immediate challenges, a monumental shift in cryptocurrency regulation through the SEC's 'Project Crypto' is poised to revolutionize US financial markets by legalizing on-chain securities and decentralized finance.
The speaker experienced a losing streak, incurring multiple partial and full stop-losses while attempting to find a long entry, which somewhat drained overall performance despite maintaining good results over the last 60 days.
Bitcoin ETFs are seeing sell-offs, while Ethereum, though not experiencing significant accumulation, is not being sold, indicating a narrative transition towards Ethereum.
Traders can claim up to $30,000 in initial deposit bonuses and access the speaker's Discord channel by trading on Bybit via provided links, requiring a $500 deposit to join and a monthly $10,000 trading volume, though the latter is currently not enforced.
US GDP soared to 3% in Q2, significantly crushing expectations and signaling a robust economy, which has negative implications for the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
June PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, came in higher than expected at 2.6% for main PCE (versus 2.3% in May, 2.5% consensus) and core PCE at 2.8% (expected to drop to 2.7%), indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
The Federal Reserve decided to hold interest rates steady, with Chair Jerome Powell adopting a hawkish stance, indicating no rate cuts are likely in September, October, or even November due to the strong economy and persistent inflation, a move that is costing the US money and stagnating the economy.
Donald Trump signed executive orders to raise tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35% and imposed an additional 40% tariff on imports from Brazil, reigniting fears of a trade war and potentially affecting inflation, while creating market uncertainty.
Amidst these economic uncertainties and policy decisions, the dollar is strengthening in the background, which is concurrently contributing to the weakening of cryptocurrencies.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled "Project Crypto," a significant commission-wide initiative to modernize securities rules and US financial markets by moving them onto the blockchain.
This project entails real-time on-chain security settlement, widens access for crypto in the US, clarifies that most tokens are not securities, and legally permits public companies to launch tokenized shares on-chain, thereby cutting out intermediaries and creating more efficient banking systems by moving monetary systems to blockchain.
Project Crypto will legalize and license decentralized broker-dealers and automated market-making pools (like decentralized exchanges), enabling them to offer on-chain services, receive licenses, and potentially operate in a non-KYC, decentralized manner legally in the United States.
Regulatory clarity and an official legal wrapper and compliance path will also be provided for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).
This initiative establishes a comprehensive legal framework for crypto in the United States, driving the future of finance towards decentralized models that are transparent, efficient, and fair, taking market share from slow, outdated, and corrupt centralized finance, with Ethereum identified as the objective fundamental winner and primary beneficiary.
The speaker's current trading strategy involves cooling down after recent liquidations, and identifying key long entry levels: around $3,500 for Ethereum and a worst-case scenario retest of $112,000 for Bitcoin, with a target of $125,000-$130,000, emphasizing proper risk and money management.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled Project Crypto, a commission-wide push to modernize securities rules and US financial markets on chain, which is the biggest development seen in crypto this year.
| Category | Development/Insight | Impact/Details |
|---|---|---|
| US Economic Indicators | Q2 GDP soared to 3%; June PCE inflation came in higher than expected (2.6% main, 2.8% core); Federal Reserve remains hawkish. | Strong economy reduces likelihood of interest rate cuts; Persistent inflation fuels Fed's cautious stance; Negatively impacts short-term market sentiment. |
| Trade Policy | Trump imposed new tariffs (Canada 25%->35%, Brazil +40%) via executive orders. | Rekindles fears of trade wars; Likely to affect inflation; Contributes to market uncertainty and dollar strengthening, weakening crypto. |
| Landmark Crypto Regulation | SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled 'Project Crypto'. | Commission-wide push to modernize securities rules and US financial markets on-chain; Legalizes tokenized public companies and their on-chain activity; Significantly opens doors for crypto in the United States. |
| Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Advancement | Project Crypto supports real-time on-chain security settlement, decentralized broker-dealers, automated market-making pools, and DAOs. | Allows for legal, licensed, and potentially non-KYC decentralized exchanges; Provides regulatory clarity and compliance paths for DAOs; Promotes a more efficient, transparent, and fair decentralized financial system. |
| Key Crypto Beneficiary | Ethereum is positioned as the 'objective fundamental winner' in the shift to decentralized finance. | Expected to be the primary blockchain to benefit from 'Project Crypto' and the future of on-chain financial systems. |
| Trading Outlook | Identified long entry levels for Ethereum (~$3,500) and Bitcoin (~$112,000 retest) with higher targets (~$125,000-$130,000). | Market is cooling down but long-term pump is anticipated; Emphasizes proper risk and money management for potential long positions. |
