17 Oct 2025
The market faces both short-term opportunities driven by anticipated rate cuts and significant long-term risks stemming from global economic instability. A temporary rally is expected before a potential downturn, influenced by critical geopolitical and monetary policy shifts.
The market is expected to worsen significantly, necessitating an understanding of both short-term and long-term situations, and past predictions of high probability events have materialized.
A very short-lived long trade is being initiated on Ethereum at levels around 3500-359 on platforms like Evex and Bybit, aiming for a quick bounce.
Evex is a decentralized, user-friendly per-deck with a mobile app, allowing users to retain asset control and accumulate valuable XP points, offering a 10% cashback link.
An expected rate cut with a 94% probability by October 29th is anticipated to drive a temporary market rally as traders front-run the decision.
Bitcoin is at an important support, with a desired level of $100,000, while Ethereum retested major resistance and is now in an area of interest around $3500.
After a potential cascading liquidation event, a small rally is expected, driven by the anticipated rate cut, which will likely reverse once the cut actually occurs, leading to a downside movement.
The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike, driven by economic issues like excessive quantitative easing and inflation, poses a critical long-term concern.
A BOJ rate hike could lead to Japan dumping long-term US treasuries, spiking US interest rates beyond what the US can afford, potentially causing a collapse and forcing the US to print more money, exacerbating inflation.
The unresolved economic and geopolitical situation between China and the United States, with a looming November 1st deadline for a potential deal, adds to global instability and market weakness.
Following the short-term long trades and quick profit-taking, there is a strong possibility of entertaining short positions due to the overarching long-term risks.
While autumn historically shows upward price movements (October, November, December), current deciding factors like Japan's monetary policy and China-US tariffs could disrupt this pattern significantly.
Market participants can gain free access to live trade updates and some market insights through a linked video for timely information not always covered in general videos.
The primary reason for continued market weakness stems from global instability, notably Japan's potential rate hikes and its impact on US treasuries, alongside the unresolved China-United States situation.
| keyInsight | description |
|---|---|
| Market Outlook | The market anticipates significant worsening, requiring awareness of both short-term opportunities and long-term systemic risks. |
| Short-Term Catalyst | An expected rate cut with 94% probability by October 29th is projected to trigger a brief market rally driven by pre-decision trading. |
| Short-Term Trading Strategy | Initiate short-lived long trades on Ethereum around 3500-359 on platforms like Evex and Bybit, targeting quick profit from the bounce. |
| Long-Term Catalyst: Japan | The Bank of Japan's potential rate hikes, necessitated by domestic economic issues, pose a major long-term threat. |
| Long-Term Impact: US Treasuries | BOJ action could lead to Japan selling US treasuries, spiking US interest rates to unsustainable levels and potentially causing economic collapse. |
| Geopolitical Risk | The unresolved China-United States economic situation, with a November 1st deadline, contributes to global instability and market weakness. |
| Strategic Market Pivot | After securing short-term long profits, the strategy suggests entertaining short positions due to looming long-term macroeconomic pressures. |
| Historical vs. Current Trends | Despite historical autumn rallies, current global economic and geopolitical factors present severe risks that could override past seasonal patterns. |
