5 Nov 2025
Despite global uncertainties and prevalent negative sentiment, current macroeconomic data, including company performance and S&P 500 levels, indicates a surprisingly stable and positive outlook, particularly for risky assets. While Bitcoin recently experienced a price drop causing investor concern, on-chain data, network health, and options market sentiment suggest a strong underlying positive trend, emphasizing that effective asset management is crucial over mere market prediction.
Global uncertainties, such as US-China tensions, trade tariffs, and US debt, are prevalent, creating a sense of instability in the world.
A deeper look into current economic data reveals a less dire situation than commonly perceived; for instance, widespread US company adjustments do not indicate an imminent crisis when considering AI's role, and the S&P 500 remains at high levels due to companies' actual profitability rather than a market bubble.
Various economic indicators like PMI and corporate earnings reports do not suggest a negative economic trend, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's statements do not convey a pessimistic outlook, with inflation effects still not fully manifested.
Overall, the macroeconomic environment does not appear to be deteriorating, which could be favorable for risky assets.
A recent significant drop in Bitcoin's price to around 105,000 has caused alarm among many investors, leading to concerns about significant capital loss and a need for them to review their investment strategies.
Analysis of Bitcoin's on-chain data indicates that holders have not sold off in large numbers, showing consistent retention and significant accumulation within the 106,000-107,000 range (URPD), suggesting strong underlying support.
The Bitcoin network remains healthy, evidenced by a robust hash rate, and the options market shows a positive sentiment, with many participants targeting Bitcoin prices of 120,000 to 140,000 by the end of the year.
Based on various indicators, potential short-to-medium-term support levels for Bitcoin are identified around 105,000-106,000 and a further level at 98,500.
A 'market action' approach encourages checking facts, avoiding bias, and understanding market sentiment to make informed decisions rather than relying on pure prediction.
The most critical aspect of investing is effective asset management, which involves knowing how to handle market fluctuations and unexpected events, rather than focusing solely on predicting market movements.
Subsequent discussions will delve deeper into specific actions and strategies for managing assets, emphasizing their greater importance over mere market analysis.
Effective asset management is more crucial than attempting to predict market direction, especially during periods of volatility.
| Category | Summary |
|---|---|
| Macroeconomic Outlook | Despite global uncertainties, economic data indicates surprising stability and profitability for companies, with no signs of a widespread bubble or severe downturn. |
| Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis | On-chain data shows strong holder retention and significant accumulation around the $106k-$107k price range, suggesting robust underlying support. |
| Bitcoin Network & Sentiment | The Bitcoin network is healthy with a strong hash rate; options market sentiment is bullish, targeting $120k-$140k by year-end. |
| Bitcoin Support Levels | Identified short-to-medium-term support levels for Bitcoin are $105k-$106k and $98.5k. |
| Investment Principle | Effective asset management and strategic adaptation are paramount, outweighing the importance of simply predicting market direction. |
