16 Oct 2025
Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a short-term bearish divergence and confirming a top signal, mirroring historical patterns from earlier in the year, while major altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana face significant support tests amid an overall market dump. This downturn is largely driven by a recent announcement of increased tariffs on Chinese products, impacting global markets including crypto and US stocks.
Bitcoin is currently playing out a short-term bearish divergence, showing weakness and pulling back, with the price accelerating this pullback due to new tariff announcements. The 4-hour chart is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term relief within the next one to two days after a possible further dump.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is at risk of reconfirming a bearish divergence due to higher price highs and lower RSI highs, with the next weekly candle close confirming in about two days. The 3-day chart shows a clear loss of previous bullish momentum, moving towards a bearish crossover, which historically leads to choppy sideways action or further pullbacks.
A major drop across all markets, including Bitcoin, altcoins, the US stock market (S&P 500 down over 2% in a single day), and other currencies, was primarily triggered by President Trump's announcement of a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese products, with the president himself acknowledging potential short-term pain for markets.
Bitcoin's current price action exhibits significant similarities to late 2024/early 2025, including a major bearish divergence on the daily chart, a subsequent pullback, a double bottom formation, a new all-time high that slightly broke the previous one before quick rejection, and similar tariff-related news events.
If the historical fractal repeats, Bitcoin could see a 20-30% drop from its current all-time high, potentially reaching around $94,000-$95,000 or even $88,000. However, being the second instance of tariff-related market impact, the decline might be less severe due to potentially increased market clarity. A bearish trend is likely for the next few weeks to one or two months.
Liquidity sits above the current price at approximately $126,000, but a bearish direction is more likely given the tariff news and ongoing fractal. Downside liquidity is noted at around $117,000-$118,000 (already partially cleared) and $108,000.
The Bitcoin dominance chart is playing out a bullish divergence, suggesting a continued slight bullish relief in the coming days or weeks. This implies that many major altcoins will likely underperform Bitcoin, meaning a larger dump for altcoins if Bitcoin continues its downward trend.
Ethereum is testing a critical support area between $3,900 and $4,100 on the 3-day timeframe. A confirmed 3-day candle close below $3,900, especially if failing to regain it, would signal a larger bearish price structure and potentially a correction lasting weeks to months. On the 8-hour chart, Ethereum has broken below previous support areas and a close below $4,060 would likely retest the $3,900 lows, with the short-term bearish divergence still active and the RSI entering oversold territory, suggesting a possible bounce in the next few days.
Solana is experiencing a rejection from resistance at $230-$233 and is moving towards retesting support between $190 and $200 on the 2-day timeframe. A daily or two-day candle close below $190, and failure to recover, would constitute a massive breakdown, confirming lower highs and lows, potentially leading to a larger bearish correction and a drop towards $170. The 4-hour chart's bearish divergence remains active, indicating weakness, but the RSI is entering oversold, suggesting some short-term relief within the next one to two days.
XRP's weekly chart still exhibits a massive bearish divergence, active since July, influencing its price. On the daily chart, XRP is attempting to break below a crucial multi-month support area around $2.70. A confirmed daily candle close below $2.70, followed by a failure to regain it as support, would be highly bearish, confirming lower lows/highs and a descending triangle pattern, potentially leading to a drop to $2.40-$2.50, and realistically to $2 per XRP in the coming weeks or month if this area is not quickly recovered.
Chain Link is following the broader crypto market's dump, heading towards retesting a significant support area between $19 and $20. A break below this support, and failure to recover, would likely lead to a move down towards $17.50, and potentially $15-$15.60. Chain Link is already in a larger bearish price structure, forming lower highs and lower lows.
A long Bitcoin trade, initiated at $110,000, generated approximately $12,000 USDT in profits within a week to a week and a half. The strategy involved taking profits at resistance levels and using a stop-loss in profits, which was triggered by the recent market dump, closing the entire trade. This exemplifies the importance of risk management, protecting downside risks even in bullish trends. The trader is currently out of all trades, including a small amount of spot Bitcoin profits taken.
Traders can profit from bearish price action using short positions. Promotions are available for new users on Bitex and Two Bit exchanges. Bitex offers up to $120,000 USDT in trading and deposit bonuses, is a no-KYC exchange, and can be accessed globally. Two Bit offers up to $10,000 USDT in trial funds, $8,000 USDT in withdrawable stablecoins, a $30 signup bonus, and a one-month VIP3 upgrade, also being a no-KYC exchange.
This is really the last chance for XRP to avoid that larger bearish move, requiring a quick regain of its support area very soon to avert a much worse outcome.
| Asset/Topic | Current Status | Outlook/Implication | Key Levels/Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Market Sentiment | Short-term bearish divergence active, daily chart shows top signal confirmation, 3-day chart losing bullish momentum, 4-hour chart nearing oversold. | Expected short-term relief within 1-2 days after a possible further dump. Overall bearish trend likely for weeks/months. | Weekly risk of bearish divergence reconfirmation. Historical fractal suggests 20-30% drop (potential targets: $94K-$95K or $88K). Upside liquidity at $126K, downside at $108K. |
| Macroeconomic Impact | Major dump across crypto, US stocks (S&P 500 down >2%), and other assets. | Triggered by President Trump's announcement of massive increase in tariffs on Chinese products. Markets historically react negatively to tariff news. | Impact felt across all markets except a few like gold. |
| Bitcoin Dominance | Playing out a bullish divergence. | Continued slight bullish relief in dominance is expected. This means altcoins will underperform Bitcoin, suffering larger dumps if Bitcoin declines. | Impacts major altcoins, while some smaller ones might be outliers. |
| Ethereum (ETH) | Testing critical 3-day support area ($3.9K-$4.1K). 8-hour chart broken previous supports, nearing oversold. | A confirmed 3-day close below $3.9K would signal a larger, multi-month bearish correction. Expect a possible bounce within days as 8-hour RSI is oversold. | Crucial support: $3.9K-$4.1K. Bearish trigger: close below $3.9K. Retest of $3.9K lows likely if 8-hour closes below $4060. |
| XRP | Massive weekly bearish divergence active. Daily chart attempting to break crucial multi-month support at $2.70. | A confirmed daily close below $2.70 would be very bearish, leading to further significant drops. This is XRP's 'last chance' to avoid a larger bearish move. | Critical support: $2.70. Potential targets if support breaks: $2.40-$2.50, realistically $2. |
| Solana (SOL) | Rejecting resistance ($230-$233), heading towards support ($190-$200). 4-hour chart bearish divergence active, entering oversold. | A break below $190 would cause a massive breakdown, leading to a larger bearish correction. Short-term relief expected within 1-2 days due to oversold conditions. | Crucial support: $190-$200. Bearish trigger: close below $190. Potential drop to $170. |
| Chain Link (LINK) | Following market dump, retesting support ($19-$20). Already in larger bearish price structure. | A break below $19-$20 would lead to further downside, confirming a larger bearish trend. | Next support: $19-$20. Potential targets if support breaks: $17.50, then $15-$15.60. |
