29 Sept 2025
The current crypto market faces significant pain due to rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and fears of recession, prompting discussions about exiting positions. Despite these short-term challenges, strong belief in the industry's future, supported by global liquidity trends, points towards potential long-term growth and the sustained holding of promising assets.
The crypto market is experiencing significant downturns, characterized by painful and sad price action across various altcoins; Ethereum recorded its worst quarter ever since its 2018 inception, making it one of the worst historical times for altcoins.
Donald Trump's unhelpful statements, rising inflation (PCE at 2.8%), and Michigan University's inflationary expectations contribute to increasing fears of a looming recession. The US President's threats to bomb Iran raise concerns about a potential World War III scenario involving Russia, which is considered a 'black swan' event not priced into current market valuations.
The M2 money supply, representing global liquidity, shows an upward trend; historically, Bitcoin's price movements follow M2 supply with a lag. This indicator suggests a potential market 'blastoff' for crypto around May 1st, following a period of consolidation in April, with expectations for Bitcoin to retest $100,000.
A long-term portfolio includes $250,000 invested in top five altcoins, and all spot holdings are maintained regardless of market dips. Short-term futures trading is minimized due to current risks, though $1.2 million in swing trades are held based on optimism derived from the M2 money supply.
Everdex, a new platform designed to bring financial freedom through self-custody and decentralization, recently secured a $10 billion business club investment. It is currently available in the App Store across 27 European countries, with real money trading anticipated to launch within one to two months.
Despite fears of global conflict or recession, there is a strong conviction to hold Bitcoin and other foundational crypto assets, viewing current market downturns as potential manipulation to squeeze out investors. Crypto is considered a superior long-term investment compared to traditional options like real estate, stock markets, government bonds, bank deposits, or holding dollars, which often fail to outperform inflation or offer consistent long-term gains.
On a long-term time horizon, holding promising and great assets in crypto will always win.
| Aspect | SummaryPoint |
|---|---|
| Market Sentiment | Current crypto market conditions are painful, with altcoins experiencing historical lows and Ethereum's worst quarter ever. |
| Key Drivers of Downturn | Rising inflation (PCE at 2.8%), fears of recession, and geopolitical tensions (US-Iran conflict, potential World War III) are major negative influences. |
| Hopeful Economic Indicator | The increasing M2 money supply (global liquidity) suggests a potential market 'blastoff' for crypto around May 1st, after an April consolidation. |
| Investment Strategy | Long-term spot holdings in Bitcoin and top altcoins are maintained, with minimal short-term futures trading due to risk, but swing trades are held based on M2 supply optimism. |
| Long-Term Conviction | Crypto assets are viewed as a superior long-term investment that will outperform traditional assets, despite short-term volatility or market manipulation. |
