29 Sept 2025
The cryptocurrency market experienced a swift collapse after showing a brief period of hope, marked by weak Bitcoin performance despite capital flowing into Ethereum. This downturn is primarily driven by newly announced tariffs and rising inflation figures, alongside a critical warning for Solana regarding significant token unlocks.
Bitcoin dominance experienced a strong rejection, and its recent pump was weak. Ethereum, however, performed better, attracting significant capital flow from Bitcoin and showing notable volume during a resistance break, indicating a potential breakout from its current formation.
The market reversal is attributed to two primary reasons: new tariffs announced by Donald Trump and rising inflation figures from the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report.
Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% tariffs on China, expected to begin around March 1st or February 1st. These tariffs, initially disregarded by the market, caused short-term volatility but are viewed as a long-term positive economic measure.
The headline PCE inflation rate climbed to 2.6%, up from the previous 2.4% and meeting the forecast of 2.6%. The core PCE rate remained at 2.8%, aligning with previous figures and expectations. Rising headline inflation reduces the likelihood of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.
A trading account, initiated with $1 million, is maintaining a relatively stable performance despite challenging market conditions, currently at a break-even point. This account holds positions in Lio, Bitcoin, Tone, Aptos, Doge, ICP, Pepe, XLM, World Coin, Trump Coin, and Chainlink.
The Trump coin has shown poor performance, incurring a $60,000 loss and is deemed one of the worst positions. It requires direct engagement or statements from Donald Trump to maintain community interest and prevent further crashes, as meme coins need constant fueling.
Solana is identified as a high-risk hold for the next 60 days due to significant impending token unlocks. February, March, and April will see unlocks of 3 million, 9 million, and 3 million Solana tokens, respectively, totaling approximately $3 billion in potential selling pressure, which could suppress its price.
If market underperformance or negative news persists, the current trading strategy involves potentially selling all or half of spot holdings and closing futures trades to mitigate risk, rather than risking further losses.
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Solana faces tremendous downside pressure over the next 60 days due to impending unlocks of approximately $3 billion worth of tokens, which will suppress its price.
| Insight | Summary |
|---|---|
| Recent Market Behavior | Brief market hope quickly collapsed; Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, attracting capital flow. |
| Key Drivers of Downturn | Donald Trump's tariff announcements and climbing PCE inflation figures. |
| Tariff Details & Impact | 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China. Caused short-term volatility but considered long-term beneficial. |
| Inflation's Effect | Headline PCE inflation rose to 2.6%, reducing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. |
| Solana (SOL) Warning | Impending unlocks of ~ $3 billion in Solana tokens over the next 60 days will create significant selling pressure. |
| Trump Coin Status | Poor performance and substantial loss ($60k); requires public support from Donald Trump to recover. |
| Personal Trading Strategy | Maintaining current positions but prepared to sell spot holdings and close futures trades if market conditions worsen. |
