29 Sept 2025
The market experienced a minor dip recently, with significant volatility expected in the coming 24 to 48 hours due to pivotal economic and geopolitical news. Key upcoming events, including reciprocal tariffs, CPI data, and FTX repayments, are poised to either continue a downward trend or trigger a market reversal.
The market experienced a dip from 96,000 down to 95,000. This price action is driven by upcoming events in the next 24 to 48 hours, which could either continue the downside movement or trigger a reversal depending on the news.
China imposed 15% tariffs on US energy and vehicles on Monday. This retaliatory measure against existing US tariffs contributed to the recent market dip.
President Trump plans to announce reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, effective almost immediately. This escalation could lead to a trade war, with Trump previously indicating he would double US tariffs. Such a conflict creates short-term volatility, uncertainty, and potential market pain, despite a long-term US victory potentially being beneficial. Trump also announced 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel on Monday, making his response to China's tariffs a significant market concern.
Billions of dollars will be returned to FTX creditors and depositors, with repayments starting on February 18th. This includes 9% annual interest from the November 11th liquidation date, and this capital is expected to flow back into the crypto market.
27 out of 50 US states have introduced Bitcoin-related legislation. These legislative efforts aim towards the establishment of Bitcoin reserves, indicating a growing trend in crypto adoption.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release on Wednesday, February 12th, is a critical market driver, as inflation remains paramount. Previous unemployment data came in positively at 4%, below the 4.1% expectation. The CPI report's outcome will dictate short-term price direction: a reading below expectations would likely turn prices upwards, while worse-than-expected data could break current support levels. A neutral reading in line with expectations would probably be perceived positively.
Current market uncertainty necessitates a cautious trading strategy, involving smaller position sizes around $850,000. It is crucial to immediately set stop losses to a no-loss position after an impulse off a liquidity zone to effectively manage risk. The current portfolio includes ETH, Pepe, Jupiter, and LRO, with no additions or reductions planned before the CPI data and Trump's tariff decisions.
Bitcoin demonstrates stability, acting as a stablecoin with support around the 91,000 level, even amid negative news or trade war escalation, barring a massive recession. Bitcoin is not expected to surpass 150,000 in the current cycle.
Ethereum rests at a very important historic support. Stabilization above 2700, followed by a retest, could pave the way to 3200 and then 3700, potentially initiating a bull run. Such a significant move would likely require quantitative easing or substantial positive news.
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Everything is currently news-driven, which emphasizes the need for a clearer market picture to scale trades with reasonable risk and money management.
| Event | Key Impact | Status/Timing |
|---|---|---|
| China's 15% Tariffs on US | Contributed to recent market dip, retaliatory measure | Imposed on Monday |
| Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Announcement | Potential escalation to trade war, increased market volatility and uncertainty | Expected Tuesday/Wednesday |
| FTX Repayments to Creditors | Billions of dollars to flow back into crypto market | Starts February 18th |
| CPI Data Release | Major short-term market driver, dictates price direction based on expectations | Wednesday, February 12th |
| US States Bitcoin Legislation | Growing mainstream adoption and movement towards Bitcoin reserves | 27 out of 50 states introduced legislation |
| Bitcoin Price Support | Strong support level, unlikely to drop below 91,000 without massive recession | Currently stable around 91,000 |
| Ethereum Price Support | Critical historic support, potential for bull run if 2700 is stabilized | Currently at historic support |
