29 Sept 2025
The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of deterioration, necessitating extreme caution despite taking short-term long positions on Ethereum and Evex for a potential bounce. This outlook is driven by significant on-chain liquidations, impending large-scale ETH unstaking, traditional market divergences, and concerning macroeconomic indicators.
The overall market situation is perceived as worsening, leading to a generally bearish sentiment despite selectively entering short-term long trades for a bounce.
A cautious trading strategy involves taking short-term long positions on Ethereum (average entry at 4100) and Evex, specifically aiming for a bounce before potential further downside, with consideration given to setting stop-losses to a 'no loss' level.
Ethereum trades were entered at approximately 4200 and 4050, averaging 4100, after observing a downward breakdown from a specific formation and an interesting order block. A strong impulse is desired for a potential exit around 4400.
A small long trade was also initiated on Evex, albeit with a slightly less favorable entry point, with plans to cut losses quickly if the trade does not perform as expected.
Trading activities are conducted on both Evidex and Bybit; Evidex is a cheaper, self-custodial decentralized exchange (DEX) with gamification, an affiliate system, and 10% cashback, while Bybit is a larger centralized exchange (CEX) offering more liquidity, pairs, functionality, and significant deposit bonuses but requires KYC.
Real-time trade updates, limit orders, and entry price information are shared in a free Telegram and Discord community, accessible by depositing at least $300 on either Bybit or Evidex using the provided channel link.
A half-billion dollars worth of Ethereum long positions have been liquidated, indicating excessive leverage in the market and a 'cleansing' action by market makers against less informed traders.
Billions of dollars in Ethereum are expected to be unstaked over the next two weeks, with a significant portion anticipated to be sold on exchanges, as demonstrated by large Binance deposits leading to market sells.
SMT and SMC quarterly theory divergences are evident in traditional markets, with the NIK failing to make a higher high while the S&P 500 continues its ascent, signaling a potential loss of market momentum overall.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's expectation of no further rate cuts this year after September, coupled with rising long-term Treasury yields, is projected to create a challenging market environment.
Gold is experiencing an unprecedented rally, suggesting a flight to safety, while Bitcoin, which typically correlates with gold and money supply, is currently declining and has been rejected from a significant historic resistance level, indicating broader market weakness.
If current Ethereum levels are not held and the price fails to reclaim the 4400+ range, potential downside targets include 3900, followed by the 3300-3500 area, with Bitcoin's loss of a crucial 104k structure portending significant declines across altcoins.
The current long trade is a low-risk bounce play with an expectation of subsequent lower prices, which may lead to considering short trades from higher bounce areas depending on how the market narrative and price action develop.
I'd rather miss a trade than just go into a dumb one.
| Comparison_Aspect | Evidex | Bybit |
|---|---|---|
| Type | Decentralized Exchange (DEX) | Centralized Exchange (CEX) |
| Cost/Fees | Cheaper, offers 10% cashback on trading fees | Slightly more expensive |
| Custody/KYC | Self-custodial, non-KYC (private trading) | Requires KYC |
| Trading Options | Fewer pairs (more to be added), good trading performance | Many more pairs, more liquidity, extensive functionality, good trading performance |
| User Incentives | Gamification, affiliate system, 10% cashback on fees | $100 welcome rewards, up to $30,000 initial deposit bonuses |
