10 Oct 2025
Despite widespread market euphoria and significant institutional investment in digital assets, underlying technical indicators suggest a looming weakness and a potential loss of momentum for Bitcoin and Ethereum. This divergence, coupled with the impact of government shutdowns on economic data, necessitates a cautious trading approach utilizing specific long entries with defined stop-losses on Ethereum amidst expectations of potential price corrections.
Despite a recent price move from 108 to 126, a significant warning is issued regarding potential future market movements, as most individuals may not anticipate what is likely to occur next. Many market participants are exhibiting euphoria, though underlying details warrant caution.
The ongoing government shutdown in the United States has necessitated the return of BLS staff to release the inflation report, as the inability to obtain macroeconomic data is hindering overall market activity.
US home prices have soared over 50% in dollar terms over the last five years (since 2020), but when measured in Bitcoin, they have collapsed by 90%, demonstrating Bitcoin's superior performance as an investment compared to real estate and gold.
State Street reports that a majority of institutional investors, representing $5.1 trillion, anticipate their digital asset exposure will double within the next three years, fueling significant market hype and euphoria.
Global Bitcoin adoption has reached 4.7%, a level comparable to the internet's adoption in 1999, indicating its early stage but significant growth potential.
Despite billions of dollars accumulated daily in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Bitcoin's price has barely moved past its previous all-time high (126, then back to 121), and Ethereum has not even reached a new all-time high. This divergence, particularly evident in assets like Ethereum which are expected to be more powerful, signals overall market weakness according to the "quarterly theory" and the Delta D60 indicator.
Long trades have been initiated on Ethereum (on Evex) and another asset (likely via BBET/Bitget), with a shared stop-loss set at 4,140 for Ethereum, risking approximately 6,000 dollars. These trades are based on technical analysis, anticipating a potential bounce from important support levels.
Evidex is highlighted as a decentralized, self-custodial, anonymous, and private exchange where users earn XP points for cash back. Access to a trading community, where all trades are shared, is available for free by depositing $300 into either BBET or Evidex.
Bitcoin is observed to be losing momentum despite positive news and accumulation, failing to reach expected targets of 150-170. A crucial historical support level at 119 must hold; otherwise, a drop to 112 or even a "magnet" area of 106-107, or 105, is possible, suggesting a potential correction before further upward movement.
For Ethereum, if current long trades do not play out, important levels to watch are 3900 and a "juicy" support at 3500, which could also form a head-and-shoulders pattern before a potential bounce. The current long trade's take-profit target is 4500, but a retest of 4500 could lead to a short trade towards 3900 due to observed market weakness.
A one-hour trading course for beginners is recommended for those interested in understanding trading logic, risk management, and the rationale behind the discussed trades.
The current market momentum for Bitcoin appears to be slowly losing steam, indicating that either an explosive movement or a correction due to lost momentum is expected.
| InsightCategory | AssetType | DollarPerformance | BitcoinPerformance | Conclusion | Source | InvestorExpectation | Timeframe | MarketImpact | CurrentAdoption | HistoricalParallel | Significance | CapitalInflow | BitcoinPriceAction | EthereumPriceAction | Interpretation | CurrentSupport | NextSupport | StrongMagnetZone | Outlook | LongTradeStopLoss | KeySupport1 | KeySupport2 | TakeProfitTarget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset Performance Comparison (5 Years) | US Home Prices | Soared over 50% | Collapsed 90% | Bitcoin is the clear winner in every category. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Institutional Digital Asset Exposure | State Street ($5.1 trillion) | Majority expect digital asset exposure to double | Within the next 3 years | Driving market hype and euphoria. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Bitcoin Global Adoption | 4.7% | Matches internet's adoption level in 1999 | Still very early stage, tiny compared to potential. | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Market Divergence (BTC & ETH) | Billions daily into ETFs | Barely broke ATH, returned to range (126 to 121) | Did not make an all-time high | Big sign of weakness despite massive accumulation. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Bitcoin Price Levels | 119 (Must hold) | 112 (Door opens) | 106-107, 105 (Fantastic possibility) | Potential for correction if current level not held. | |||||||||||||||||||
| Critical Ethereum Price Levels | 4140 | 3900 | 3500 (Best/juiciest) | 4500 (for current long trade) |
