29 Sept 2025
The current crypto market is exhibiting concerning bearish signals, including significant ETF outflows and increasing short positions, which contrast with some positive long-term news. While maintaining a long-term bullish outlook for crypto this year, the immediate strategy involves a short-biased approach and building swing trades at specific Bitcoin and Ethereum price levels.
An objective, honest, and transparent analysis of the crypto market is presented, including a look into personal trades and in-depth D60 data analysis often overlooked by other influencers.
Previous predictions for Ethereum's correction target of $3350-$3400 and Bitcoin's target of $112,000, which involved retesting its previous all-time high, were successfully met.
The market views positively the upcoming announcement of a new Federal Reserve governor, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by September or October, and Congress's approval of a $3.4 trillion spending package, which indicates new money flow and potential money printing, beneficial for altcoins long-term.
New crypto-specific bills, such as the Genius Act and Clear Act, are considered positive developments, though their market impact is largely perceived as already priced in.
Eric Trump's 'buy the dips' endorsement for Bitcoin and Ethereum is noted, with a historical precedent where a similar statement from him previously preceded a significant Ethereum price drop from $2700 to $1300.
Recent data indicates substantial ETF outflows for both Ethereum (e.g., minus $152 million on Friday, minus $500 million on Monday) and Bitcoin (e.g., minus $100 million on Thursday, nearly $1 billion on Friday, minus $300 million yesterday), signifying considerable selling pressure from institutional investors.
D60 (bids and asks) data reveals an increase in asks (limit shorts) and a decrease in bids (limit longs), a deviation previously observed before a Bitcoin correction to $100,000, indicating a potential short-term sell-off or market stagnation.
Despite the current short-term bearish signals and a cautious immediate strategy, an overall long-term bullish outlook for the crypto market throughout the current year is maintained.
A 60-day trading overview for an account funded with $100,000 shows overall positive performance, despite a low win rate attributed to numerous break-even trades and a recent losing streak.
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Bitcoin demonstrated weakness after failing to sustain above an important resistance level, subsequently dropping to the previous all-time high of $112,000. Short entries are considered between $116,000-$118,000, while long entries are eyed around $110,000, $104,000, and $101,000, though the latter two are deemed less likely for August.
Ethereum's price action shows it encountered strong resistance at historically significant levels on the weekly chart. Short opportunities are identified around $3900-$4000, with long entries considered in the $3350-$3100 range.
A short-biased approach and building swing trades are currently favored due to D60 data and technicals, anticipating a potentially slow and quiet August with a bigger correction, with a long-biased strategy possibly resuming in September if deltas invert.
For now, a short-biased approach and building swing trades are prioritized over long-biased positions, maintaining objectivity.
| Key_Aspect | Detail | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Market Outlook (Short-term) | Significant bearish signals from ETF outflows and D60 data. | Anticipates a potential bigger correction and a slow August market. |
| Market Outlook (Long-term) | The current year is expected to be fantastic for crypto; positive news like Fed rate cuts and spending bills are beneficial. | Maintains an underlying long-term bullish sentiment despite short-term caution. |
| ETF Flows | Massive outflows for ETH (e.g., -$500M) and BTC (e.g., -$1B) occurred in recent days. | Indicates strong institutional selling pressure and market weakness. |
| D60 Data (Bids/Asks) | An increase in limit shorts (asks) and a decrease in limit longs (bids) is observed. | Suggests a short-term sell-off or market stagnation, mirroring previous corrections. |
| Bitcoin Trading Strategy | Short entries are considered at $116K-$118K; long entries range from $110K down to $101K. | Focuses on swing trades, cautiously building long positions at lower levels. |
| Ethereum Trading Strategy | Short entries are considered at $3900-$4000; long entries are from $3350 down to $3100. | Focuses on swing trades, strategically entering long positions after dips. |
| Influencer Statements | Eric Trump's 'buy the dips' comment was highlighted. | Historically, similar comments preceded significant price drops, raising caution. |
