29 Sept 2025
The current market presents opportunities for short trades, influenced by significant political news and shifting crypto dynamics. An in-depth analysis of major news events, market trends, and specific trade setups for Ethereum and Bitcoin guides potential short-term strategies before anticipating a long-term bullish continuation.
Recent personal trades on Bybit resulted in a significant loss, but the overall performance over the last 90 days remains steady and slow for a small account. This information is not financial advice, as market movements cannot be predicted with certainty.
The Bybit platform offers community members initial deposit bonuses of up to $30,000 and up to 42% discount on trading fees. These benefits can save traders substantial money, and new accounts can be created with different forms of identification to claim them.
Donald Trump plans to open the US retirement market, specifically 401k plans, to crypto investments, along with other alternative assets like metals, funds, and equities, through an executive order. This initiative targets a $9 trillion market, potentially ushering in a massive influx of capital into digital assets over the long term.
Jerome Powell faces a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice for two counts of perjury and a $2.5 billion Federal Reserve building renovation. Federal housing directors suggest his resignation speech is imminent, with polymarkets pricing in a 50% probability of this event occurring.
Powell's replacement, likely someone favoring aggressive rate cuts (possibly down to 1% as desired by Trump), could cause short-term market volatility and a dip in the S&P 500. This short-term uncertainty would also affect Bitcoin and Ethereum due to their strong correlation with the S&P 500, potentially leading to a good short-term trading opportunity followed by a long-term upward move driven by money printing.
Recent ETF flows show Bitcoin experiencing sales of $130 million, while Ethereum saw $300 million in purchases, indicating sustained strong interest in Ethereum.
Bitcoin dominance crashed from 66% to 60%, fueling a significant pump in altcoins and Ethereum as capital flowed out of Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin dominance is bouncing off a critical support trend line, suggesting Bitcoin is regaining strength, while Ethereum's price might decline after its recent rally.
The market for Ethereum appears overextended, indicating a need for a cool-down. A short trade opportunity is considered around the 3900-3940 level for a short-term correction, following a recent break of structure. A potential long entry target after a dip would be around 3350, identified as a strong order block and yearly open.
Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, with an important order block at 112k (its previous all-time high) as a potential target. Given recent Bitcoin ETF sales and the possibility of a market cool-down (e.g., due to Powell's resignation), a break of current support could lead to a dip towards 112k for consolidation. This consolidation phase is anticipated to precede a new altcoin season and the continuation of the broader upward market trend.
The market is usually scared of uncertainty because nobody knows what's going to happen, leading to short-term pain before potential long-term benefits.
| category | keyPoint | marketImpact |
|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Outlook | Donald Trump plans to open the US $9 trillion retirement market (401k plans) to crypto investments. | This initiative, via executive order, signifies a massive long-term bullish catalyst for digital assets. |
| Monetary Policy & Leadership | Jerome Powell is under criminal investigation for perjury, with resignation potentially imminent. | His replacement, likely pro-rate cuts, could trigger significant short-term market volatility and a dip in the S&P 500, impacting correlated crypto assets. |
| Market Correlation | Bitcoin and Ethereum exhibit strong correlation with the S&P 500. | Short-term market instability from Powell's departure is expected to cause pain for major cryptocurrencies, but could precede long-term growth as money printing resumes. |
| Cryptocurrency Dominance | Bitcoin dominance declined from 66% to 60%, fueling altcoin rallies. | Bitcoin is now bouncing off a key support trend line, suggesting a potential shift where Bitcoin regains strength and Ethereum's recent rally might reverse. |
| Ethereum Trading Strategy | Ethereum is considered overextended, requiring a market cool-down. | Short trade opportunities are eyed around 3900-3940 for a short-term correction, with a long entry target at 3350 after a dip, aligning with strong order blocks. |
| Bitcoin Trading Strategy | Bitcoin remains in an uptrend, with 112k (previous ATH) as an important order block. | Recent Bitcoin ETF sales suggest a potential break of current support, leading to a dip towards 112k for consolidation. This phase could precede an altcoin season and the continuation of the overall upward trend. |
