29 Sept 2025
The current week is critical for the cryptocurrency market, with an important breakout occurring amidst cautious sentiment. Key long-term indicators suggest the market is still early in its cycle, but a significant Federal Reserve event this week will likely dictate the next major move.
An interesting breakout has occurred where resistance levels were broken, retested, and then pushed higher, only to be rejected again before a recent successful breakout and retest, demonstrating a technically sound pattern.
No new trades have been initiated due to the slow market conditions, with an experimental account funded with an initial $100k plus $50k over 90 days, demonstrating that trading is possible with small risk (1-2% per trade).
A comprehensive market understanding requires a top-to-bottom approach, first zooming out for a long-term perspective, then zooming in to analyze short-term drivers that influence the broader narrative.
Bybit offers welcome rewards up to $100 and initial deposit bonuses up to $30,000, while Evdex, a fully decentralized exchange, provides full control over assets, privacy, anonymity, and slightly cheaper trading fees with a 10% cashback offer.
The MVRV Z-score, which compares Bitcoin's circulating market value to its realized market value, indicates that the market is nowhere near the overvalued peaks seen at previous bull market tops, suggesting an early stage in the current cycle.
From a long-term perspective, the market's Fear and Greed Index has remained neutral for a considerable period, indicating that extreme greed, typical of bull market tops, has not yet materialized.
Google searches for 'Bitcoin' and 'crypto' terms are currently near their bottom, contrasting sharply with the 'mega spikes' in search volume seen during market peaks when retail hype is at its highest.
Funding rates are currently very low and boring, providing only about 10% yield, whereas in overheated bull markets, they can reach up to 100% APR, indicating that the market is not yet over-leveraged on the long side.
The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on September 17th, including a rate cut decision and POW speech, is identified as the deciding factor for the market this week, with a 25 basis point cut almost certain, and a 50 basis point cut potentially driving a significant upside.
Despite the recent breakout, short-term volume is weak, suggesting that while a continuous pump to higher targets is possible (30% probability), a correction or stop hunting around 112K for Bitcoin is more probable as the market awaits the FOMC decision.
Ethereum is consolidating, and a retest of the 4300-4000 ETH level would be a suitable entry point for building swing long trades into autumn, though overall short-term correction is anticipated due to slipping volume.
Access to a trading community is available for users who deposit at least $300 on Bybit or Evdex, and a one-hour trading course is provided for beginners and advanced traders covering proper risk and money management.
To truly stay on top of the market, one must always zoom out for the long-term perspective and then zoom in for the short-term, employing a top-to-bottom approach.
| metric | bullMarketPeak | currentStatus | implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-score | Huge peaks (overvalued) | Nowhere near peak (relatively early) | Market is not overvalued; significant upside potential remains. |
| Fear & Greed Index | Extreme greed | Neutral | Lack of widespread euphoria suggests market has room to grow. |
| Google Trends (Crypto terms) | Huge mega spikes | At or near bottom | Low retail interest indicates significant untapped potential. |
| Funding Rates | Super overheated (~100% APR) | Low and boring (~10% yield) | Market is not over-leveraged; healthy positioning for future gains. |
| Key Event | N/A | FOMC rate decision (Sept 17th) | This event is the major short-term catalyst for market direction. |
| Short-Term Volume | High / Sustained | Weak and slipping | Suggests potential for a short-term correction before a major move. |
