29 Sept 2025
Recent geopolitical tensions involving Israel, Iran, China, and the U.S., alongside an anticipated FOMC meeting, have led to significant volatility in cryptocurrency markets. Despite current consolidation and partial recovery, critical developments in the next 72 hours could either stabilize prices or trigger a further market crash.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana experienced a recent price drop, currently exhibiting a consolidation pattern, with their future movement dependent on critical factors within the next 72 hours.
A Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and interest rate decision are scheduled for Wednesday, with a 99.6% expectation of no rate cut, making Jerome Powell's statements crucial for market direction.
Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, leading to a heavy and ongoing missile exchange between the two nations, raising fears of a broader Middle East war.
Donald Trump stated the U.S. would attack Iran if American military bases in the UAE, Qatar, or Bahrain were struck, though the U.S. formally rejected Israel's request for direct involvement in the conflict.
China and Russia have expressed support for Iran in defending its legitimate rights, indicating the conflict could involve a wider coalition of global powers.
Middle East conflicts disrupt oil production, causing oil price spikes, which can lead to skyrocketing gas prices, increased inflation, and a strained U.S. economy with a critically low personal savings rate.
The potential surfacing of Epstein's secret photos of Donald Trump with young girls could force Congress to impeach and remove him, creating severe market turmoil.
The trader closed a long ETH position with a loss and experienced another small loss attempting to re-enter, currently holding no active trades but preparing for future entries at lower support levels.
While current market recovery is attributed to the U.S. rejecting direct involvement in the war, significant escalation (e.g., a false flag attack on U.S. bases) could drive Bitcoin below $90K in the short term, though wars historically lead to long-term market rises due to money printing.
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Every single war in the world led to money printing and subsequent rise in the markets, unless we have a global nuclear war.
| Point | Detail | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC Meeting | Federal Reserve to announce interest rate decision. | 99.6% expectation of no rate cut; a cut would signal Fed pivot and cause market pump. |
| Israel-Iran Escalation | Israel bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, leading to ongoing missile exchanges. | Caused significant crypto market dips; risk of a wider Middle East war. |
| US Involvement Stance | Trump threatened retaliation for attacks on US bases; US rejected Israel's request for direct war involvement. | US non-involvement aided current market recovery; direct involvement would trigger a major crash. |
| Global Power Alignments | China and Russia support Iran. | Expands the conflict beyond regional actors, increasing global uncertainty and market volatility. |
| Oil Market Disruption | Middle East conflicts disrupt oil production. | Leads to oil price spikes, higher US gas prices, increased inflation, and economic strain. |
| US Political Instability | Potential release of Epstein photos involving Donald Trump. | Could lead to Trump's impeachment, creating extreme political and market turmoil. |
| Long-term War Economics | Historical observation that wars lead to money printing. | Creates long-term market opportunities and subsequent rises, despite short-term crashes, unless a global nuclear war occurs. |
