20 Oct 2025
Current market sentiment is characterized by diverse and often pessimistic price targets for Bitcoin and gold, alongside general uncertainty about a market crash. The decisive factor for future price action in Bitcoin and ETH, however, lies in the Federal Reserve's impending shift from quantitative tightening to potentially reintroducing market liquidity.
Current market sentiment reveals widespread fear, with conflicting Bitcoin price targets ranging from $67,000 to $29,000, alongside expectations of gold soaring and a general market crash.
The trader demonstrates transparency by consistently showing long-term P&L over six months, including detailed entry and exit points for trades.
Both ETH and Bitcoin are consolidating within ranges observed since August, indicating limited significant price movement, though previous areas of interest for Bitcoin trades performed well.
Some key ETH orders at $3,600 and $3,300 were narrowly missed, and no trades could be secured on Evex.
Bybit, a large centralized exchange requiring KYC, offers good liquidity, numerous pairs, and welcome rewards up to $100 for KYC completion, plus initial deposit bonuses up to $30,000.
Evex is a decentralized, anonymous, non-KYC exchange with less liquidity and fewer pairs than Bybit, but it ensures full self-custody and control over assets during trading.
Instructions are available for individuals to become Bybit or Evex traders and gain free access to the trader's market order trades.
The Bank of Japan is considering raising rates if economic forecasts align, potentially leading to the dumping of US treasuries and a rally in long-term Treasury bill interest rates, negatively impacting the economy.
Noteworthy figures like James Win predict capitulation to $67,000-$75,000, while Andrew Tate suggests Bitcoin could drop to $26,000, though such predictions are often publicity-driven.
The market's movement is fundamentally driven by liquidity, not by long-term emotion, technical levels, or other commonly cited factors.
The Federal Reserve plans to halt its quantitative tightening (QT), which has been withdrawing liquidity from the market, with Wall Street strategists now expecting this move sooner than previously anticipated.
Barclays and Goldman Sachs have advanced their forecasts for the Federal Reserve to stop shrinking its portfolio from late Q1 2026 to as early as the end of the current year.
While quantitative tightening is expected to stop, quantitative easing (QE), which involves actively injecting liquidity by purchasing treasury bills, might not immediately follow unless specific market circumstances necessitate it, potentially resuming active purchases by 2026.
The M2 money supply has begun to curve downwards, although a chart for this was not explicitly provided.
Markets are anticipated to front-run the Federal Reserve's policy reversal, leading to a significant 'Valhalla' price pump when liquidity floods back into the market, as confirmed by Chair Jerome Powell.
The transition period, especially if a black swan event occurs, could be extremely volatile and often to the downside, potentially leading to painful short-term price action before the eventual rally.
With a full shift to quantitative easing, Bitcoin is projected to reach a target range of $150,000 to $170,000.
A rate cut expected in October could prompt a short-term price pump, followed by consolidation within a trading range until the Federal Reserve's major policy shift materializes.
Until the major Federal Reserve policy shift occurs, the strategy involves trading within the current ranges and accumulating valuable coins, utilizing active futures trades.
The market is primarily driven by liquidity rather than long-term emotion, technical levels, or other factors.
| Insight | Description | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Market Driver | Liquidity is the primary force influencing market movements, not emotion or technical levels. | Market participants should focus on central bank policy and money supply for directional cues. |
| Fed Policy Reversal | The Federal Reserve is expected to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) and potentially transition to quantitative easing (QE). | This shift will reintroduce liquidity, acting as a major market stimulant for asset prices. |
| Accelerated Timeline | Wall Street strategists (Barclays, Goldman Sachs) now forecast the Fed's QT cessation by year-end, much sooner than the previous Q1 2026 expectation. | Markets are likely to front-run this anticipated policy change, leading to early price adjustments. |
| Future Price Action | Stopping QT and initiating QE will flood markets with money, leading to a significant 'Valhalla' price pump for cryptocurrencies. | A long-term bullish outlook for assets like Bitcoin, with a target of $150K-$170K, is projected. |
| Interim Volatility | The period leading up to and during the full policy reversal could be extremely volatile and often painful, particularly to the downside. | Traders should prepare for potential short-term downturns before the major upside movement begins. |
| Exchange Options | Bybit offers a centralized, high-liquidity trading experience with KYC, while Evex provides decentralized, anonymous, self-custodial trading. | Traders can select an exchange based on their preference for convenience/liquidity (Bybit) or privacy/control (Evex). |
