29 Sept 2025
Many investors are currently contemplating exiting the crypto market due to widespread frustration stemming from significant price drops in assets like Ethereum and Solana. Despite this prevailing fear and ongoing liquidation events, an analysis of global liquidity and potential policy shifts suggests an eventual market rally, though extreme caution is advised for high-leverage trading.
Many individuals are expressing intentions to quit crypto immediately due to pain and frustration from widespread price declines across various assets.
Solana has experienced significant depreciation, with prices potentially targeting $100-$120, even before major token unlock events scheduled for March.
Recent sharp market declines, such as Ethereum's drop from $2850 to $2300, were primarily due to liquidation events and widespread selling, not major black swan events or geopolitical conflicts.
Several U.S. states failed to pass strategic Bitcoin Reserve bills, despite Trump's pledges, generating 'fear, uncertainty, and doubt' (FUD) in the Bitcoin market.
Bitcoin appears fundamentally sound on longer-term charts and is considered the least volatile primary holding, with many investors maintaining over 50% of their crypto portfolio in it despite current market pain.
The primary issues in the current market reside with altcoins like Ethereum and Solana, which are performing much differently and more painfully than in previous market cycles.
Consumer confidence has seen its biggest drop since 2021, falling below recession warning thresholds, influenced by Trump's tariffs and government job cuts, contributing to a lack of risk appetite in the market.
Bybit successfully closed its ETH gap after a $1.4 billion hack, proving its solvency and trustworthiness by not freezing withdrawals and demonstrating robust financial health.
The increasing M2 money supply, or global liquidity, typically precedes Bitcoin price rallies by about three months, suggesting a potential market upturn within the next 3-4 weeks, possibly aided by quantitative easing.
Eric Trump continues to publicly support crypto, encouraging investors to 'buy the dips,' indicating sustained political interest despite market volatility.
Existing trades in Ethereum, Jupiter, AUKTION, LDO, and PEPE are being maintained, with large orders placed to add significantly to Ethereum and LDO positions if prices decline further.
Despite some positive news like Bybit's recovery, significant negativity persists in the market, making the reaction of altcoins to Bitcoin's corrections painful; extreme caution with leverage is strongly advised.
A personal commitment to remain invested in crypto until the end is expressed, urging others to prioritize family responsibilities, mind their leverage, and avoid reckless 'DeGen' trading during turbulent times.
The only thing that is saving us is Bitcoin, which is still fine, but overall, if you decide to leave now, it's up to you; I will not leave.
| Insight Category | Key Insight |
|---|---|
| Market Sentiment | Widespread frustration and calls to quit crypto due to significant price drops, especially in altcoins. |
| Altcoin Performance | Solana appears as a 'shitcoin' with potential to drop to $100-$120, worsened by upcoming March unlocks. |
| Downturn Cause | Market dumps are primarily due to liquidation events and selling, not major 'black swan' events. |
| Regulatory Impact | US strategic Bitcoin Reserve bills failed, creating fear (FUD) and hindering Bitcoin's growth expectations. |
| Bitcoin's Role | Bitcoin remains relatively stable long-term, serving as the least volatile primary holding for many investors. |
| Economic Indicators | Consumer confidence suffered its biggest drop since 2021, linked to Trump's tariffs and job cuts, fueling recession warnings. |
| Exchange Resilience | Bybit successfully closed its $1.4 billion ETH gap post-hack, demonstrating solvency and trustworthiness. |
| Future Outlook | Rising M2 money supply (global liquidity) suggests a potential Bitcoin rally within 3-4 weeks, historically lagging by 3 months. |
| Investment Strategy | Maintaining existing crypto positions with plans for large additional purchases of Ethereum and LDO at lower price points. |
| Risk Management | Extreme caution with leverage is emphasized due to altcoins' painful reactions to even minor Bitcoin corrections. |
| Long-Term Stance | Commitment to stay invested ('diamond hands') in crypto despite turbulent times, advising others to mind responsibilities. |
