30 Oct 2025
The cryptocurrency market is currently retesting crucial support levels while the US stock market continues its ascent to all-time record highs, anticipating an upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. This analysis delves into the technical indicators and key price levels for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Chainlink, alongside the potential market impact of the Fed meeting and a transparent trading strategy.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to decide on interest rates, with a highly probable 0.25% cut expected, an outcome already priced into the market and thus likely to be neutral. Significant market volatility is anticipated if the rate cut deviates from the 25 basis points, such as a 50 basis point cut (bullish) or no change (bearish), with the Fed Chair's press conference also a potential volatility trigger.
The US stock market is poised to open at all-time record highs, demonstrating strong bullish momentum over the past one to two weeks, which typically provides support for the crypto market. Historically, major crypto bear markets do not coincide with such strong stock market performance, offering current confidence in the crypto sector.
The weekly super trend indicator remains bullish (green), but a significant bearish divergence between the Bitcoin price and its RSI suggests a loss of bullish momentum. This indicates a likely period of cooling off, potentially lasting weeks or months, while still remaining within the larger bull market.
Bitcoin holds above an important support level around $111,000, currently retesting and bouncing from short-term support between $111.6K and $112K. Short-term resistance lies between $115.5K and $116,000; a confirmed breakout above $116,000 targets the next major resistance at $120.5K to $121,000.
A bullish divergence on the 6-hour Bitcoin chart remains active, suggesting further relief and a potential retest of resistance in the coming days. The liquidation heat map indicates substantial liquidity towards the upside around $116.4K, which could draw the price if the Fed meeting outcome is neutral or slightly bullish.
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The Bitcoin dominance chart is exhibiting a bullish divergence, which typically leads to a very slight bullish relief and continued choppy, sideways price action in the short term.
Ethereum's daily chart shows an active bullish divergence, pointing towards sideways price action or a slight bullish relief. However, recent 8-hour candle closes below the crucial $4060 to $4.1K area confirm a short-term bearish signal, potentially establishing this range as new resistance.
The break below $4060 to $4.1K has invalidated confidence in a previous triangle pattern on the 4-hour Ethereum chart, signaling a loss of short-term bullish momentum. Effective risk management, including taking profits at resistance levels and moving stop-losses into profit, is vital for managing breakout trading strategies.
Solana is showing signs of breaking out above the historical $190 to $200 area on the 2-day timeframe; a confirmed close above $200 would be a bullish signal. The 8-hour RSI is trending upwards, forming higher lows and highs, suggesting a continuation of the short-term bullish trend seen over the past one to two weeks, with resistance levels at $29 and $230.
XRP is playing out a bullish divergence, implying a slight bullish relief, but it is currently encountering resistance between $260 and $2.70. An active inverse head and shoulders pattern on the 8-hour chart targets $2.88 if a confirmed breakout above $2.70 occurs, with pattern invalidation if the price breaks below $2.50.
Chainlink exhibits a bullish divergence, similar to XRP, suggesting either choppy sideways price action or a slight bullish relief in the short term. Support levels are identified around $17.30-$17.50, $16.50, and $15.20-$15.70, while strong resistance is present between $19.50 and $20; a confirmed break above $20 could lead to a 10% move towards $22.
Historically, we have never seen a massive bear market like this while the stock market has been so bullish.
| topic | keyInsight | implication |
|---|---|---|
| FOMC Meeting & Interest Rates | Market expects a 0.25% interest rate cut, making this outcome neutral. Unexpected outcomes (e.g., 0.5% cut or no change) would induce high volatility. | Prepare for short-term market volatility around the 6 PM GMT announcement and subsequent Fed Chair press conference. |
| US Stock Market | Stock market at all-time highs, indicating strong bullish performance. | Historically, bullish stock markets support crypto; major crypto bear markets are unlikely during such strong stock performance. |
| Bitcoin (Weekly/Larger Trend) | Super trend indicator is green (bull market), but a massive bearish divergence on RSI suggests cooling bullish momentum. | Expect a period of several weeks/months of slower price action, potentially still within a bull market. |
| Bitcoin (Short-term) | Retesting support ~$111K-$112K; current slight bounce. Bullish divergence active on 6-hour chart. | Resistance at $115.5K-$116K; a confirmed break targets $120.5K-$121K, driven by upside liquidity at $116.4K. |
| Ethereum | Bullish divergence active, but confirmed 8-hour candle closes below crucial $4060-$4.1K area. | Short-term bearish signal; $4060-$4.1K likely becomes new resistance. Confidence in previous triangle pattern is lost. |
| Solana | Starting to break above $190-$200, a crucial historical area. 8-hour RSI trending upwards. | Confirmed close above $200 would be bullish, targeting ~$29 then ~$230. Expect continuation of short-term bullish trend. |
| XRP | Bullish divergence active; struggling at $260-$2.70 resistance. Active inverse head and shoulders pattern. | Likely slight bullish relief. A breakout above $2.70 targets $2.88. Invalidation if price breaks below $2.50. |
| Chainlink | Bullish divergence active; similar to XRP, implying choppy sideways or slight bullish relief. | Strong resistance at $19.50-$20. A confirmed break above $20 could lead to a ~10% move towards $22. |
| Trading Strategy | Utilizing a Pinex futures grid bot for passive, emotionless profit generation. | The bot automatically buys low and sells high, making profits from market volatility and recovery. |
